Cerezo Ōsaka vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 3.5

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (83%) · Over at 100¢ · $132 held · ended Oct 25

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 83%

Total Value

$132.18

Combined PnL

-$23.34

Smart Money Entry

30.9¢ → 99.5¢

+222% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$82.91

Total Shares344

Combined PnL-$23.34

Under1 trader

Total Value$49.28

Total Shares64

Combined PnL-$0

Over — 83%Under — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1<$100	Overavg 22¢	$62.04	$64.86	+$2.82	55% 43123-35478 (78601)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 77¢	$49.28	$49.28	-$0	51% 6464-6262 (12726)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100	Overavg 90¢	$36	$9.2	-$26.8	95% 13864-795 (14659)
US User7429<$100	Overavg 96¢	$4.8	$4.98	+$0.17	57% 5855-4377 (10232)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Overavg 19¢	$2.23	$2.7	+$0.47	52% 16158-14689 (30847)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 23¢	$1.17	$1.17	-$0	58% 1363-997 (2360)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$62.04

Value

$64.86

PnL

+$2.82

Record

55%

43123-35478 (78601)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$49.28

Value

$49.28

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

6464-6262 (12726)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100

Over

Invested

$36

Value

$9.2

PnL

-$26.8

Record

95%

13864-795 (14659)

User7429<$100

Over

Invested

$4.8

Value

$4.98

PnL

+$0.17

Record

57%

5855-4377 (10232)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Over

Invested

$2.23

Value

$2.7

PnL

+$0.47

Record

52%

16158-14689 (30847)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$1.17

Value

$1.17

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

1363-997 (2360)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.