Games Total: O/U 2.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 57¢ · $562 held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 75%
$562.34
$14.23
53.5¢ → 57¢
+7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 57%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Underavg 53¢ | $264.47 | $269.46 | +$4.99 | 69% 4216-1907 (6123) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542 | Underavg 54¢ | $166.32 | $175.56 | +$9.24 | 47% 1955-2177 (4132) |
 Basquetipster<$100 | Underavg 54¢ | $63.18 | $63.18 | +$0 | 70% 1545-671 (2216) |
 StudyPredictionCTR<$100 | Overavg 43¢ | $54.14 | $54.14 | -$0 | 51% 3538-3435 (6973) |
Invested
$264.47
Value
$269.46
PnL
+$4.99
Record
69%
4216-1907 (6123)
Invested
$166.32
Value
$175.56
PnL
+$9.24
Record
47%
1955-2177 (4132)
Basquetipster<$100Invested
$63.18
Value
$63.18
PnL
+$0
Record
70%
1545-671 (2216)
StudyPredictionCTR<$100Invested
$54.14
Value
$54.14
PnL
-$0
Record
51%
3538-3435 (6973)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.