Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-10-25?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 71¢ · $122 held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
$121.84
$0.58
Research grade
NeutralNo at 71%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $66 | $66.48 | +$0.47 | 58% 31395-22700 (54095) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $33.43 | $33.9 | +$0.48 | 53% 13553-11995 (25548) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $22.2 | $21.46 | -$0.37 | 54% 13697-11517 (25214) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.