Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (52%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Kawasaki Frontale vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 2.5

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 48¢ · $13K held · ended Oct 25

Over52¢Under48¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 63%

Total Value

$13.2K

Combined PnL

$-3.8K

Smart Money Entry

45.8¢ → 48¢

+5% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 48%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$8.9K

Total Shares18,313

Combined PnL$-3.6K

Over3 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares8,235

Combined PnL-$184.2

Under — 63%Over — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (3 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CH chongchong37CTR	Underavg 46.5¢	$7.0K	$7.2K	$-3.8K	49% 65-67 (132)
RN1	Overavg 53.5¢	$4.2K	$4.1K	-$115.09	55% 43123-35478 (78601)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 44.4¢	$896.83	$969.65	+$72.82	52% 16158-14689 (30847)
FO fooooolCTR	Underavg 39.6¢	$537.05	$595.74	+$58.69	51% 6464-6262 (12726)
UP UpTheBlues	Overavg 72.4¢	$250.04	$180.97	-$69.07	68% 30779-14814 (45593)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 42.7¢	$88.3	$91.15	+$2.85	58% 31395-22700 (54095)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 29¢	$0.84	$1.4	+$0.55	50% 8728-8659 (17387)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 54¢	$1.08	$1.04	-$0.04	58% 1363-997 (2360)

chongchong37CTR

Under

Invested

$6,989.47

Value

$7.2K

PnL

$-3.8K

Record

49%

65-67 (132)

RN1

Over

Invested

$4,217.77

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$115.09

Record

55%

43123-35478 (78601)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$896.83

Value

$969.65

PnL

+$72.82

Record

52%

16158-14689 (30847)

fooooolCTR

Under

Invested

$537.05

Value

$595.74

PnL

+$58.69

Record

51%

6464-6262 (12726)

UpTheBlues

Over

Invested

$250.04

Value

$180.97

PnL

-$69.07

Record

68%

30779-14814 (45593)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$88.3

Value

$91.15

PnL

+$2.85

Record

58%

31395-22700 (54095)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.84

Value

$1.4

PnL

+$0.55

Record

50%

8728-8659 (17387)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$1.08

Value

$1.04

PnL

-$0.04

Record

58%

1363-997 (2360)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 48%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (3 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.2%

48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$99.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

199.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.