Cerezo Ōsaka vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 1.5
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 94¢ · $123 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Over
3
Over 33%
$122.86
-$8.67
Research grade
NeutralOver at 94%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LO looppau | Overavg 99.9¢ | $124.32 | $116.97 | -$7.34 | 99% 6708-34 (6742) |
SH shiifooCTR<$100 | Underavg 6¢ | $5.16 | $5.16 | -$0 | 63% 2554-1471 (4025) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Underavg 17¢ | $2.05 | $0.72 | -$1.33 | 51% 6464-6262 (12726) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.