Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Natus Vincere — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Natus Vincere

Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A

Resolved Natus Vincere. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Natus Vincere. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Natus Vincere 71%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$880.7K

Combined PnL

$91.9K

Smart Money Signal

Natus Vincere

46 of 65 top traders (71%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Natus Vincere100%

Team Falcons0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Falcons19 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares423,610

Combined PnL$-231.9K

Natus Vincere46 traders

Total Value$752.9K

Total Shares752,914

Combined PnL+$323.8K

Team Falcons — 29%Natus Vincere — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU juice-fruitCTR	Team Falconsavg 52.8¢	$100.4K	—	$-100.4K	57% 54-40 (94)
TH Thunderous-Authoritarian-Snarl	Natus Vincereavg 48.1¢	$116.2K	$241.7K	+$125.5K	52% 15-14 (29)
LO lonmi2511ARB<$100	Team Falconsavg 65¢	$83.9K	$49.0K	$-34.9K	55% 1303-1085 (2388)
└ Team Falcons leg	Team Falconsavg 65¢	$60.2K	—	$-60.2K
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 48.2¢	$23.6K	$49.0K	+$25.4K
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	Natus Vincereavg 55.1¢	$70.0K	$70.4K	+$408.59	54% 2620-2246 (4866)
TA TAIWANNUMBERONECTR	Team Falconsavg 52.5¢	$32.1K	—	$-32.1K	54% 1319-1125 (2444)
YI yishiwuchengARB<$100	Team Falconsavg 63.8¢	$37.3K	$33.7K	$-3.5K	50% 1897-1878 (3775)
└ Team Falcons leg	Team Falconsavg 63.8¢	$21.5K	—	$-21.5K
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 46.8¢	$15.8K	$33.7K	+$18.0K
Tokenn	Natus Vincereavg 48.4¢	$21.9K	$45.1K	+$23.3K	48% 670-732 (1402)
JA jakepaulthegoat2008CTR	Team Falconsavg 53.4¢	$28.3K	—	$-28.3K	50% 7390-7520 (14910)
drainedandpoorCTR	Team Falconsavg 51.9¢	$22.4K	—	$-22.4K	48% 637-678 (1315)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Natus Vincereavg 59.1¢	$26.7K	$25.6K	$-1.1K	52% 14216-12995 (27211)
G5 g56gz56guzn547nu76	Natus Vincereavg 48.2¢	$25.9K	$53.7K	+$27.8K	55% 232-189 (421)
FK fkALG2FalconsTESCTR	Team Falconsavg 53.4¢	$16.0K	—	$-16.0K	57% 2075-1537 (3612)
CORGII	Natus Vincereavg 47.2¢	$20.1K	$42.5K	+$22.4K	40% 403-594 (997)
NS NS13ARB<$100	Team Falconsavg 45.7¢	$77.1K	$7.4K	$-69.7K	52% 426-392 (818)
└ Team Falcons leg	Team Falconsavg 45.7¢	$72.4K	—	$-72.4K
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 64.1¢	$4.7K	$7.4K	+$2.7K
CA caishenbaoyoufadacai888ARB<$100	Team Falconsavg 77¢	$17.5K	$14.0K	$-4.3K	57% 683-524 (1207)
└ Team Falcons leg	Team Falconsavg 77¢	$10.8K	—	$-11.5K
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 48¢	$6.7K	$14.0K	+$7.3K
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F	Natus Vincereavg 47¢	$14.0K	$29.8K	+$15.8K	56% 227-181 (408)
GO Gooooooollllllllll	Natus Vincereavg 46¢	$11.8K	$30.0K	+$18.1K	50% 1258-1257 (2515)
DS dsasdaas	Natus Vincereavg 48¢	$13.0K	$25.0K	+$12.0K	63% 295-172 (467)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Natus Vincereavg 46.6¢	$11.3K	$18.4K	+$7.1K	56% 7713-6183 (13896)
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 46.6¢	$8.6K	$18.4K	+$9.8K
└ Team Falcons leg	Team Falconsavg 51.6¢	$2.6K	—	$-2.7K
minji	Natus Vincereavg 50.2¢	$7.4K	$10.2K	+$5.4K	52% 1842-1697 (3539)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Natus Vincereavg 99.1¢	$8.7K	$8.8K	+$79.28	35% 18059-33813 (51872)
FA fantasy7788	Natus Vincereavg 51.2¢	$10.3K	$20.0K	+$9.8K	43% 94-124 (218)
DamwonChampions2026	Natus Vincereavg 43.7¢	$7.4K	$14.9K	+$7.5K	53% 2111-1876 (3987)
ShadowRealmsCTR	Team Falconsavg 78.9¢	$8.0K	—	$-8.4K	51% 127-120 (247)
LI LinkE5	Natus Vincereavg 50.2¢	$7.5K	$15.0K	+$7.5K	47% 720-805 (1525)

juice-fruitCTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$100,447.32

Value

—

PnL

$-100.4K

Record

57%

54-40 (94)

Thunderous-Authoritarian-Snarl

Natus Vincere

Invested

$116,199.29

Value

$241.7K

PnL

+$125.5K

Record

52%

15-14 (29)

lonmi2511ARB<$100

Team Falcons

Invested

$83,858.13

Value

$49.0K

PnL

$-34.9K

Record

55%

1303-1085 (2388)

Both legs:

Team Falcons$60,218.1465¢$-60.2K

Natus Vincere$23,64048.2¢+$25.4K

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

Natus Vincere

Invested

$69,989.04

Value

$70.4K

PnL

+$408.59

Record

54%

2620-2246 (4866)

TAIWANNUMBERONECTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$32,118.5

Value

—

PnL

$-32.1K

Record

54%

1319-1125 (2444)

yishiwuchengARB<$100

Team Falcons

Invested

$37,274.66

Value

$33.7K

PnL

$-3.5K

Record

50%

1897-1878 (3775)

Both legs:

Team Falcons$21,505.3463.8¢$-21.5K

Natus Vincere$15,769.3246.8¢+$18.0K

Tokenn

Natus Vincere

Invested

$21,867.55

Value

$45.1K

PnL

+$23.3K

Record

48%

670-732 (1402)

jakepaulthegoat2008CTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$28,318.77

Value

—

PnL

$-28.3K

Record

50%

7390-7520 (14910)

drainedandpoorCTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$22,413.52

Value

—

PnL

$-22.4K

Record

48%

637-678 (1315)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Natus Vincere

Invested

$26,677.8

Value

$25.6K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

52%

14216-12995 (27211)

g56gz56guzn547nu76

Natus Vincere

Invested

$25,917.83

Value

$53.7K

PnL

+$27.8K

Record

55%

232-189 (421)

fkALG2FalconsTESCTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$16,024.45

Value

—

PnL

$-16.0K

Record

57%

2075-1537 (3612)

CORGII

Natus Vincere

Invested

$20,070.34

Value

$42.5K

PnL

+$22.4K

Record

40%

403-594 (997)

NS13ARB<$100

Team Falcons

Invested

$77,113.79

Value

$7.4K

PnL

$-69.7K

Record

52%

426-392 (818)

Both legs:

Team Falcons$72,365.9145.7¢$-72.4K

Natus Vincere$4,747.8764.1¢+$2.7K

caishenbaoyoufadacai888ARB<$100

Team Falcons

Invested

$17,455.93

Value

$14.0K

PnL

$-4.3K

Record

57%

683-524 (1207)

Both legs:

Team Falcons$10,752.7377¢$-11.5K

Natus Vincere$6,703.248¢+$7.3K

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F

Natus Vincere

Invested

$14,006.29

Value

$29.8K

PnL

+$15.8K

Record

56%

227-181 (408)

Gooooooollllllllll

Natus Vincere

Invested

$11,849.92

Value

$30.0K

PnL

+$18.1K

Record

50%

1258-1257 (2515)

dsasdaas

Natus Vincere

Invested

$13,022.9

Value

$25.0K

PnL

+$12.0K

Record

63%

295-172 (467)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Natus Vincere

Invested

$11,331.37

Value

$18.4K

PnL

+$7.1K

Record

56%

7713-6183 (13896)

Both legs:

Natus Vincere$8,584.746.6¢+$9.8K

Team Falcons$2,575.5751.6¢$-2.7K

minji

Natus Vincere

Invested

$7,446.22

Value

$10.2K

PnL

+$5.4K

Record

52%

1842-1697 (3539)

xtxpleasecallme

Natus Vincere

Invested

$8,726.29

Value

$8.8K

PnL

+$79.28

Record

35%

18059-33813 (51872)

fantasy7788

Natus Vincere

Invested

$10,250.3

Value

$20.0K

PnL

+$9.8K

Record

43%

94-124 (218)

DamwonChampions2026

Natus Vincere

Invested

$7,407.06

Value

$14.9K

PnL

+$7.5K

Record

53%

2111-1876 (3987)

ShadowRealmsCTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$7,973.51

Value

—

PnL

$-8.4K

Record

51%

127-120 (247)

LinkE5

Natus Vincere

Invested

$7,537.43

Value

$15.0K

PnL

+$7.5K

Record

47%

720-805 (1525)

Smart Money Signal

Natus Vincere

46 of 65 top traders (71%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x7a03f001...ea17cf

Slug

cs2-navi-fal2-2026-11-04

Traders in this Market

juice-fruit

CTR

Team Falcons — $0

$-100.4K

Thunderous-Authoritarian-Snarl

Natus Vincere — $241.7K

+$125.5K

lonmi2511

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

$-34.9K

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

Natus Vincere — $70.4K

TAIWANNUMBERONE

Team Falcons — $0

yishiwucheng

Arbitrage — excluded

Tokenn

Natus Vincere — $45.1K

jakepaulthegoat2008

Team Falcons — $0

drainedandpoor

Team Falcons — $0

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Natus Vincere — $25.6K

$-1.1K

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