Consensus PnL $498K · win rate 57% (228–172, n=400) · PM monthly #90 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$498.2K
Record
228W / 172L
Win Rate
57.0%
of 400 settled
Batting Avg
49.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#932
Source
PM monthly #90
Record (90 d)
229/391 · 59%
Trades
7,359
Markets
436
Volume
$4.2M
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Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 2 on the consensus side (0%)- Will T1 win Worlds 2026?Yes $2.7K · now 20¢ · in at 20¢against the consensus (No)
- Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026?Yes $106 · now 26¢ · in at 22¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
380 settled consensus markets · held side won 59% at an average entry of 55¢- Esports
+6 pts
side won 63% of 221 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +9%
- NBA
+20 pts
side won 73% of 11 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +20%
- NFL
+5 pts
side won 62% of 13 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +11%
Weakest: NHL — held side won 49% of 99 at an average 51¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI +6%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 0% of 2)
- 30–50¢: 28%(won 51% of 107)
- 50–70¢: 65%(won 60% of 247)
- 70¢ and up: 6%(won 88% of 24)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.