No settled consensus market yet · PM monthly #44 · holds 183 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$0
Source
PM monthly #44 + pinned
Trades
0
Markets
0
Volume
$0
Top consensus positions
183 in listed consensus markets · 102 of 183 on the consensus side (56%)- Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?No $8.9K · now 79¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (73% of 31)
- Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?No $7.3K · now 92¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (46% of 77)
- Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $6.0K · now 42¢ · in at 53¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?No $5.0K · now 79¢ · in at 75¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia?No $3.6K · now 79¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (42% of 12)
- Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?No $3.1K · now 86¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (71% of 17)
- No one announced as next James Bond?No $3.1K · now 78¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (59% of 22)
- Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?No $3.1K · now 75¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (50% of 12)
Specialties
5,882 settled consensus markets · held side won 39% at an average entry of 30¢- Politics
+15 pts
side won 55% of 362 · avg entry 39¢
ROI +9%
- Entertainment
+13 pts
side won 51% of 722 · avg entry 38¢
ROI +4%
- Mentions
+11 pts
side won 41% of 714 · avg entry 29¢
ROI +3%
Weakest: MLB — held side won 2% of 49 at an average 7¢ entry (−5 pts against the price), ROI −4%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 64%(won 10% of 3779)
- 30–50¢: 8%(won 69% of 488)
- 50–70¢: 7%(won 89% of 429)
- 70¢ and up: 20%(won 99% of 1186)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.