Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs MOUZ - Map 3 Winner

20 of 34 top Polymarket traders hold MOUZ (59%) · MOUZ at 95¢ · $77K held · ends Nov 8

TheMongolz5¢MOUZ95¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

MOUZ

Consensus Traders

MOUZ 59%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$77.2K

Combined PnL

$5.7K

Smart Money Entry

76.7¢ → 95.4¢

+24% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

NeutralMOUZ at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

MOUZ

20 of 34 top traders (59%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

TheMongolz5%

MOUZ95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

MOUZ20 traders

Total Value$61.9K

Total Shares66,358

Combined PnL+$7.1K

TheMongolz14 traders

Total Value$9.5K

Total Shares43,078

Combined PnL$-1.5K

MOUZ — 59%TheMongolz — 41%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18	MOUZavg 70.9¢	$11.4K	$15.4K	+$4.0K	50% 7740-7873 (15613)
RE redvinny	MOUZavg 83.5¢	$13.6K	$13.5K	-$123.73	75% 1633-539 (2172)
GaoJin-GamblingGod	MOUZavg 72¢	$7.4K	$9.8K	+$2.4K	50% 573-574 (1147)
0X 0xD487f513cfeAD22d76B6db4567c756b3Cf250	MOUZavg 90.3¢	$7.6K	$7.7K	+$99.86	97% 3845-139 (3984)
CORGIICTR	TheMongolzavg 29.6¢	$6.1K	$6.1K	-$17.34	41% 418-597 (1015)
FK fkALG2FalconsTESARB<$100	MOUZavg 73.3¢	$4.5K	$4.6K	+$95.73	57% 2127-1578 (3705)
└ MOUZ leg	MOUZavg 73.3¢	$2.9K	$3.4K	+$446.52
└ TheMongolz leg	TheMongolzavg 19.9¢	$1.6K	$1.2K	-$350.78
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	MOUZavg 70.7¢	$3.5K	$3.4K	-$106.91	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
BL black-rabbit	MOUZavg 64¢	$1.9K	$2.9K	+$975	54% 2073-1776 (3849)
80 0x8002...8b6c	MOUZavg 79¢	$1.8K	$2.1K	+$388.85	—
RI Richidd	MOUZavg 75¢	$4.2K	$1.4K	-$790.4	49% 61-63 (124)
LL lllllllIlllCTR	TheMongolzavg 26¢	$725.31	$1.4K	+$669.51	54% 322-277 (599)
Up0nly	MOUZavg 79.7¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	+$58.09	68% 1076-497 (1573)
RA RayayaCTR	TheMongolzavg 29.4¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$3.65	61% 1227-797 (2024)
BI BillBenter2026	MOUZavg 74.4¢	$876.89	$1.1K	+$246.92	57% 19479-14427 (33906)
PA pauleta23	MOUZavg 83¢	$1.0K	$960.94	-$45.52	65% 24597-12971 (37568)
FE ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100	TheMongolzavg 11¢	$1.0K	$854.06	-$165.27	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
└ MOUZ leg	MOUZavg 64.5¢	$449.85	$673.3	+$223.44
└ TheMongolz leg	TheMongolzavg 11¢	$569.47	$180.76	-$388.71
31 319113331313111	MOUZavg 70¢	$840.1	$766.67	-$73.44	59% 414-284 (698)
FR frohp5	MOUZavg 64¢	$500	$753.91	+$253.91	65% 2092-1126 (3218)
DamwonChampions2026	MOUZavg 82.3¢	$280.78	$329.35	+$48.58	53% 2198-1947 (4145)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	TheMongolzavg 31¢	$1.1K	$300.27	-$779.47	56% 8260-6557 (14817)
└ MOUZ leg	MOUZavg 74¢	$149.74	$195.27	+$45.53
└ TheMongolz leg	TheMongolzavg 31¢	$930	$105	-$825
CA caishenbaoyoufadacai888CTR	TheMongolzavg 27¢	$220.59	$232.84	+$12.25	57% 701-531 (1232)
KA Kaczka	MOUZavg 74¢	$262.5	$177.4	-$85.1	51% 500-489 (989)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG	MOUZavg 65.2¢	$162.87	$171.24	+$8.37	59% 6954-4900 (11854)
timebrotime	MOUZavg 73.8¢	$202.71	$137.26	-$65.45	67% 998-483 (1481)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	TheMongolzavg 6¢	$228.84	$133.49	-$95.35	53% 6334-5615 (11949)

robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18

MOUZ

Invested

$11,432.38

Value

$15.4K

PnL

+$4.0K

Record

50%

7740-7873 (15613)

redvinny

MOUZ

Invested

$13,575.36

Value

$13.5K

PnL

-$123.73

Record

75%

1633-539 (2172)

GaoJin-GamblingGod

MOUZ

Invested

$7,401.14

Value

$9.8K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

50%

573-574 (1147)

0xD487f513cfeAD22d76B6db4567c756b3Cf250

MOUZ

Invested

$7,598.34

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$99.86

Record

97%

3845-139 (3984)

CORGIICTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$6,141.54

Value

$6.1K

PnL

-$17.34

Record

41%

418-597 (1015)

fkALG2FalconsTESARB<$100

MOUZ

Invested

$4,523.87

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$95.73

Record

57%

2127-1578 (3705)

Both legs:

MOUZ$2,933.4873.3¢+$446.52

TheMongolz$1,590.3919.9¢-$350.78

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

MOUZ

Invested

$3,536.2

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$106.91

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

black-rabbit

MOUZ

Invested

$1,920

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$975

Record

54%

2073-1776 (3849)

0x8002...8b6c

MOUZ

Invested

$1,755.38

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$388.85

Record

—

Richidd

MOUZ

Invested

$4,154.3

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$790.4

Record

49%

61-63 (124)

lllllllIlllCTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$725.31

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$669.51

Record

54%

322-277 (599)

Up0nly

MOUZ

Invested

$1,388.76

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$58.09

Record

68%

1076-497 (1573)

RayayaCTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$1,176.34

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$3.65

Record

61%

1227-797 (2024)

BillBenter2026

MOUZ

Invested

$876.89

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$246.92

Record

57%

19479-14427 (33906)

pauleta23

MOUZ

Invested

$1,006.46

Value

$960.94

PnL

-$45.52

Record

65%

24597-12971 (37568)

ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100

TheMongolz

Invested

$1,019.33

Value

$854.06

PnL

-$165.27

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

Both legs:

MOUZ$449.8564.5¢+$223.44

TheMongolz$569.4711¢-$388.71

319113331313111

MOUZ

Invested

$840.1

Value

$766.67

PnL

-$73.44

Record

59%

414-284 (698)

frohp5

MOUZ

Invested

$500

Value

$753.91

PnL

+$253.91

Record

65%

2092-1126 (3218)

DamwonChampions2026

MOUZ

Invested

$280.78

Value

$329.35

PnL

+$48.58

Record

53%

2198-1947 (4145)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

TheMongolz

Invested

$1,079.74

Value

$300.27

PnL

-$779.47

Record

56%

8260-6557 (14817)

Both legs:

MOUZ$149.7474¢+$45.53

TheMongolz$93031¢-$825

caishenbaoyoufadacai888CTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$220.59

Value

$232.84

PnL

+$12.25

Record

57%

701-531 (1232)

Kaczka

MOUZ

Invested

$262.5

Value

$177.4

PnL

-$85.1

Record

51%

500-489 (989)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG

MOUZ

Invested

$162.87

Value

$171.24

PnL

+$8.37

Record

59%

6954-4900 (11854)

timebrotime

MOUZ

Invested

$202.71

Value

$137.26

PnL

-$65.45

Record

67%

998-483 (1481)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$228.84

Value

$133.49

PnL

-$95.35

Record

53%

6334-5615 (11949)

Research grade

NeutralMOUZ at 95%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

MOUZ

20 of 34 top traders (59%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that MOUZ wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.6%

95.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.