Consensus PnL $60K · win rate 59% (6258–4276, n=10534) · PM monthly #449 · holds 64 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$60.5K
Record
6258W / 4276L
Win Rate
59.0%
of 10534 settled
Batting Avg
66.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#849
Source
PM monthly #449
Record (90 d)
2616/2803 · 93%
Trades
20,696
Markets
11,664
Volume
$774.3K
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Top consensus positions
64 in listed consensus markets · 48 of 64 on the consensus side (75%)- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 WinnerTeam Falcons $324 · now 37¢ · in at 62¢against the consensus (Natus Vincere)
- FC Seoul vs. The Cong - Viettel FC: O/U 3.5Over $322 · now 11¢ · in at 46¢with the consensus (67% of 10)
- Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026?Yes $159 · now 75¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (28% of 40)
- Will Alexander Zverev be Number 1 on the End of Year ATP RankingsYes $100 · now 99¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (25% of 12)
- Big Bash League, Women: Hobart Hurricanes vs Melbourne RenegadesMelbourne Renegades $99 · now 89¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (54% of 14)
- Will the Republican Party win the TX-09 House seat?No $96 · now 100¢ · in at 26¢against the consensus (Yes)
- SK Artis Brno vs. Bohemians Praha 1905: O/U 2.5Under $70 · now 50¢ · in at 53¢against the consensus (Over)
- Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?No $60 · now 19¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (65% of 87)
Specialties
2,269 settled consensus markets · held side won 98% at an average entry of 62¢- Crypto
+43 pts
side won 100% of 320 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +50%
- Tennis
+36 pts
side won 100% of 485 · avg entry 64¢
ROI +38%
- Esports
+34 pts
side won 98% of 1168 · avg entry 64¢
ROI +36%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 6%(won 91% of 140)
- 30–50¢: 21%(won 97% of 468)
- 50–70¢: 34%(won 98% of 779)
- 70¢ and up: 39%(won 100% of 882)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.