Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET

24 of 35 top Polymarket traders hold Up (69%) · Up at 100¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 6

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 69%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.6K

Combined PnL

-$570.92

Smart Money Entry

74.6¢ → 100¢

+34% since entry · 24 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

24 of 35 top traders (69%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up24 traders

Total Value$8.0K

Total Shares8,161

Combined PnL+$285

Down11 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares5,445

Combined PnL-$855.92

Up — 69%Down — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99.9¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$0.81	89% 29315-3554 (32869)
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$10.94	56% 30399-23643 (54042)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 57¢	$751.56	$835.23	+$83.67	54% 16566-13992 (30558)
PL ply-pm0CTR	Downavg 39.3¢	$843.22	$833.57	-$9.65	50% 6371-6378 (12749)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 69.3¢	$746.51	$637.69	-$108.82	56% 15897-12510 (28407)
KA KARIZMATIKUCTR	Downavg 58.1¢	$770.48	$590.08	-$180.39	52% 707-663 (1370)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 56.8¢	$530.58	$581.29	+$50.71	47% 6525-7238 (13763)
machinelearned	Upavg 54.1¢	$495.19	$554.59	+$59.39	55% 9839-8152 (17991)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 60.4¢	$520.92	$537.05	+$16.13	66% 101015-52904 (153919)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 52.5¢	$367.05	$461.96	+$94.92	55% 14939-12410 (27349)
10 1000monkeysCTR	Downavg 45.7¢	$471.68	$452.8	-$18.88	59% 11272-7737 (19009)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 56.1¢	$263.39	$331.6	+$68.22	51% 12072-11547 (23619)
AL almachCTR	Downavg 53.5¢	$621.36	$278.03	-$343.33	55% 50160-41769 (91929)
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99.9¢	$282.32	$277.95	-$4.38	59% 63890-45025 (108915)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 52.6¢	$191.27	$238.1	+$46.84	54% 13654-11684 (25338)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Downavg 44.5¢	$196.46	$196	-$0.46	54% 10134-8485 (18619)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.5¢	$96.55	$143.28	+$46.73
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.5¢	$99.91	$52.72	-$47.19
ohioism	Upavg 87¢	$205.42	$172.43	-$33	63% 42429-25148 (67577)
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Downavg 25.3¢	$192.26	$170.05	-$22.21	45% 40086-48022 (88108)
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.5¢	$42.46	$119.71	+$77.25
└ Down leg	Downavg 25.3¢	$149.8	$50.34	-$99.46
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Upavg 46.7¢	$136.05	$150.79	+$14.75	52% 21099-19255 (40354)
AS asdaefef	Upavg 75.2¢	$148.14	$128.1	-$20.05	66% 130591-67529 (198120)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100	Upavg 45.5¢	$82.79	$94.82	+$12.03	52% 10543-9889 (20432)
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.5¢	$47.93	$53.24	+$5.31
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.5¢	$34.86	$41.58	+$6.72
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 76.8¢	$56.64	$56.4	-$0.25	58% 63285-46506 (109791)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 54.4¢	$27.58	$46.13	+$18.55	65% 114575-61604 (176179)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 61.1¢	$92.32	$45.58	+$0.29	65% 130257-70136 (200393)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Upavg 37¢	$29.6	$32.4	+$2.8	12% 18908-134163 (153071)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,626.37

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$0.81

Record

89%

29315-3554 (32869)

THG.

Invested

$1,139.9

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$10.94

Record

56%

30399-23643 (54042)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$751.56

Value

$835.23

PnL

+$83.67

Record

54%

16566-13992 (30558)

ply-pm0CTR

Down

Invested

$843.22

Value

$833.57

PnL

-$9.65

Record

50%

6371-6378 (12749)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$746.51

Value

$637.69

PnL

-$108.82

Record

56%

15897-12510 (28407)

KARIZMATIKUCTR

Down

Invested

$770.48

Value

$590.08

PnL

-$180.39

Record

52%

707-663 (1370)

asdcaxz

Invested

$530.58

Value

$581.29

PnL

+$50.71

Record

47%

6525-7238 (13763)

machinelearned

Invested

$495.19

Value

$554.59

PnL

+$59.39

Record

55%

9839-8152 (17991)

Bonereaper

Invested

$520.92

Value

$537.05

PnL

+$16.13

Record

66%

101015-52904 (153919)

GoodFallen

Invested

$367.05

Value

$461.96

PnL

+$94.92

Record

55%

14939-12410 (27349)

1000monkeysCTR

Down

Invested

$471.68

Value

$452.8

PnL

-$18.88

Record

59%

11272-7737 (19009)

blue.birds

Invested

$263.39

Value

$331.6

PnL

+$68.22

Record

51%

12072-11547 (23619)

almachCTR

Down

Invested

$621.36

Value

$278.03

PnL

-$343.33

Record

55%

50160-41769 (91929)

0x50f7

Invested

$282.32

Value

$277.95

PnL

-$4.38

Record

59%

63890-45025 (108915)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$191.27

Value

$238.1

PnL

+$46.84

Record

54%

13654-11684 (25338)

stepaheadARB<$100

Down

Invested

$196.46

Value

$196

PnL

-$0.46

Record

54%

10134-8485 (18619)

Both legs:

Up$96.5551.5¢+$46.73

Down$99.9144.5¢-$47.19

ohioism

Invested

$205.42

Value

$172.43

PnL

-$33

Record

63%

42429-25148 (67577)

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$192.26

Value

$170.05

PnL

-$22.21

Record

45%

40086-48022 (88108)

Both legs:

Up$42.4632.5¢+$77.25

Down$149.825.3¢-$99.46

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Invested

$136.05

Value

$150.79

PnL

+$14.75

Record

52%

21099-19255 (40354)

asdaefef

Invested

$148.14

Value

$128.1

PnL

-$20.05

Record

66%

130591-67529 (198120)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100

Invested

$82.79

Value

$94.82

PnL

+$12.03

Record

52%

10543-9889 (20432)

Both legs:

Up$47.9345.5¢+$5.31

Down$34.8641.5¢+$6.72

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$56.64

Value

$56.4

PnL

-$0.25

Record

58%

63285-46506 (109791)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$27.58

Value

$46.13

PnL

+$18.55

Record

65%

114575-61604 (176179)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$92.32

Value

$45.58

PnL

+$0.29

Record

65%

130257-70136 (200393)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Invested

$29.6

Value

$32.4

PnL

+$2.8

Record

12%

18908-134163 (153071)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

24 of 35 top traders (69%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.