Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET

21 of 27 top Polymarket traders hold Up (78%) · Up at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 6

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 78%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.9K

Combined PnL

$31.43

Smart Money Entry

79.7¢ → 100¢

+25% since entry · 21 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

21 of 27 top traders (78%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up21 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares5,476

Combined PnL+$108.37

Down6 traders

Total Value$3.35

Total Shares860

Combined PnL-$76.94

Up — 78%Down — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 91.8¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$13.67	66% 101015-52904 (153919)
KA KARIZMATIKU	Upavg 59.9¢	$497.9	$677.54	+$179.64	52% 707-663 (1370)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 78.6¢	$560.07	$561.27	+$1.19	50% 6371-6378 (12749)
10 1000monkeys	Upavg 81.2¢	$578.96	$537.01	-$41.95	59% 11272-7737 (19009)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 79.2¢	$425.65	$427.55	+$1.9	51% 12072-11547 (23619)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 86.6¢	$455.11	$413.73	-$41.39	47% 6525-7238 (13763)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 71.2¢	$267.94	$275.81	+$7.87	54% 16566-13992 (30558)
└ Up leg	Upavg 71.2¢	$178.02	$186.29	+$8.27
└ Down leg	Downavg 25.6¢	$89.92	$89.52	-$0.4
PA Papeasy	Upavg 83.6¢	$272.57	$274.18	+$1.61	49% 4171-4276 (8447)
pspspsps5	Upavg 71.1¢	$236.3	$264.12	+$27.82	45% 40086-48022 (88108)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 87.8¢	$314.45	$254.58	-$59.87	55% 9839-8152 (17991)
└ Up leg	Upavg 87.8¢	$187.58	$189.15	+$1.57
└ Down leg	Downavg 22.3¢	$126.87	$65.43	-$61.44
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Upavg 76.6¢	$263.04	$249.01	-$14.03	52% 10430-9438 (19868)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 82.1¢	$169.11	$123.06	-$46.04	55% 14939-12410 (27349)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 71.7¢	$71.38	$99.52	+$28.14	66% 130591-67529 (198120)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 89.5¢	$90.85	$86.99	-$3.87	55% 51660-42833 (94493)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Upavg 77.6¢	$79.87	$80.75	+$0.89	57% 9912-7415 (17327)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Downavg 32.8¢	$89.8	$72.52	-$17.28	54% 10134-8485 (18619)
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.8¢	$62.94	$48.96	-$13.98
└ Up leg	Upavg 85¢	$26.86	$23.56	-$3.3
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100	Upavg 78.8¢	$68.62	$70.81	+$2.2	52% 10543-9889 (20432)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 87.7¢	$75.29	$70.33	-$4.96	63% 42429-25148 (67577)
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100	Upavg 86.8¢	$64.63	$58.11	-$6.52	52% 21099-19255 (40354)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 78.9¢	$51.64	$52.7	+$1.06	65% 130257-70136 (200393)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 95.2¢	$30.15	$30.9	+$0.74	61% 46076-29253 (75329)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 74.4¢	$23.84	$26.77	+$2.94	56% 60523-47081 (107604)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 70.6¢	$20.83	$25.88	+$5.05	49% 80962-84399 (165361)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Upavg 72¢	$8.54	$8.83	+$0.3	56% 77387-59788 (137175)
PB PBot-5CTR<$100	Downavg 23.7¢	$2.37	$2.35	-$0.02	52% 12320-11359 (23679)

Bonereaper

Invested

$1,119.51

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$13.67

Record

66%

101015-52904 (153919)

KARIZMATIKU

Invested

$497.9

Value

$677.54

PnL

+$179.64

Record

52%

707-663 (1370)

ply-pm0

Invested

$560.07

Value

$561.27

PnL

+$1.19

Record

50%

6371-6378 (12749)

1000monkeys

Invested

$578.96

Value

$537.01

PnL

-$41.95

Record

59%

11272-7737 (19009)

blue.birds

Invested

$425.65

Value

$427.55

PnL

+$1.9

Record

51%

12072-11547 (23619)

asdcaxz

Invested

$455.11

Value

$413.73

PnL

-$41.39

Record

47%

6525-7238 (13763)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$267.94

Value

$275.81

PnL

+$7.87

Record

54%

16566-13992 (30558)

Both legs:

Up$178.0271.2¢+$8.27

Down$89.9225.6¢-$0.4

Papeasy

Invested

$272.57

Value

$274.18

PnL

+$1.61

Record

49%

4171-4276 (8447)

pspspsps5

Invested

$236.3

Value

$264.12

PnL

+$27.82

Record

45%

40086-48022 (88108)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$314.45

Value

$254.58

PnL

-$59.87

Record

55%

9839-8152 (17991)

Both legs:

Up$187.5887.8¢+$1.57

Down$126.8722.3¢-$61.44

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Invested

$263.04

Value

$249.01

PnL

-$14.03

Record

52%

10430-9438 (19868)

GoodFallen

Invested

$169.11

Value

$123.06

PnL

-$46.04

Record

55%

14939-12410 (27349)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$71.38

Value

$99.52

PnL

+$28.14

Record

66%

130591-67529 (198120)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$90.85

Value

$86.99

PnL

-$3.87

Record

55%

51660-42833 (94493)

wzbbb<$100

Invested

$79.87

Value

$80.75

PnL

+$0.89

Record

57%

9912-7415 (17327)

stepaheadARB<$100

Down

Invested

$89.8

Value

$72.52

PnL

-$17.28

Record

54%

10134-8485 (18619)

Both legs:

Down$62.9432.8¢-$13.98

Up$26.8685¢-$3.3

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100

Invested

$68.62

Value

$70.81

PnL

+$2.2

Record

52%

10543-9889 (20432)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$75.29

Value

$70.33

PnL

-$4.96

Record

63%

42429-25148 (67577)

x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100

Invested

$64.63

Value

$58.11

PnL

-$6.52

Record

52%

21099-19255 (40354)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$51.64

Value

$52.7

PnL

+$1.06

Record

65%

130257-70136 (200393)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$30.15

Value

$30.9

PnL

+$0.74

Record

61%

46076-29253 (75329)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$23.84

Value

$26.77

PnL

+$2.94

Record

56%

60523-47081 (107604)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$20.83

Value

$25.88

PnL

+$5.05

Record

49%

80962-84399 (165361)

uninformedfloww<$100

Invested

$8.54

Value

$8.83

PnL

+$0.3

Record

56%

77387-59788 (137175)

PBot-5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.37

Value

$2.35

PnL

-$0.02

Record

52%

12320-11359 (23679)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

21 of 27 top traders (78%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.