Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET

21 of 32 top Polymarket traders hold Down (66%) · Down at 100¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 6

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 66%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.7K

Combined PnL

-$271.92

Smart Money Entry

56¢ → 100¢

+78% since entry · 21 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

21 of 32 top traders (66%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down21 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares6,804

Combined PnL-$201.96

Up11 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,091

Combined PnL-$69.96

Down — 66%Up — 34%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KA KARIZMATIKU	Downavg 44.1¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$93.19	52% 707-663 (1370)
10 1000monkeysCTR	Upavg 46.2¢	$493.61	$487.87	-$5.74	59% 11272-7737 (19009)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 83.3¢	$676.32	$447.92	-$228.4	66% 101015-52904 (153919)
PL ply-pm0CTR	Upavg 33.7¢	$370.97	$362.36	-$8.61	50% 6371-6378 (12749)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 46.5¢	$355.83	$340.79	-$15.04	54% 16566-13992 (30558)
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.6¢	$135.25	$253	+$117.75
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.5¢	$220.58	$87.8	-$132.79
BL blue.birds	Downavg 56.7¢	$333.07	$305.23	-$27.84	51% 12072-11547 (23619)
cryingbabydicer87	Downavg 99.7¢	$285.29	$286.09	+$0.8	48% 10588-11259 (21847)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Downavg 61.2¢	$269.01	$280.51	+$11.5	52% 10543-9889 (20432)
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Upavg 44.9¢	$940.95	$242.35	+$23.68	53% 8272-7248 (15520)
BO bosona	Downavg 76¢	$333.62	$241.43	-$92.19	55% 51695-42148 (93843)
pspspsps5	Downavg 49¢	$194.63	$232.14	+$37.51	45% 40086-48022 (88108)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 38.9¢	$151.65	$213.72	+$62.07	47% 6525-7238 (13763)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 55.6¢	$202.37	$210.61	+$8.24	55% 14939-12410 (27349)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 71.7¢	$168.64	$190.51	+$21.87	56% 15897-12510 (28407)
MO mo-money	Downavg 74¢	$115.48	$155.98	+$40.51	55% 52350-42819 (95169)
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$147.87	$147.79	-$0.08	59% 63890-45025 (108915)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Downavg 52.3¢	$101.7	$136.65	+$34.95	52% 21099-19255 (40354)
BoneOhioCTR	Upavg 67.1¢	$136.19	$120.82	-$15.37	74% 105071-37075 (142146)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 59.1¢	$178.77	$116.82	-$61.95	55% 9839-8152 (17991)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.5¢	$55.45	$69.84	+$14.38
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.1¢	$123.32	$46.99	-$76.34
FairValueMachine	Downavg 63.7¢	$76.93	$111.23	+$34.3	54% 13654-11684 (25338)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 42.3¢	$98.6	$104.51	+$5.91	54% 10134-8485 (18619)
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.6¢	$42.88	$80.11	+$37.23
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.3¢	$55.72	$24.4	-$31.32
13 13897651ARB<$100	Upavg 51¢	$111.33	$97.08	-$14.25	56% 8793-6866 (15659)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51¢	$58.13	$49.57	-$8.56
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.3¢	$53.2	$47.52	-$5.69
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Downavg 95.5¢	$114.24	$85.59	-$28.64	65% 130257-70136 (200393)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Downavg 82.2¢	$71.94	$76.09	+$4.15	57% 9912-7415 (17327)
AN antsaslykuARB<$100	Upavg 55.1¢	$97.61	$54.85	-$42.76	65% 114575-61604 (176179)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.1¢	$67.93	$27.72	-$40.22
└ Down leg	Downavg 84.8¢	$29.68	$27.13	-$2.55

KARIZMATIKU

Down

Invested

$1,555.08

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$93.19

Record

52%

707-663 (1370)

1000monkeysCTR

Invested

$493.61

Value

$487.87

PnL

-$5.74

Record

59%

11272-7737 (19009)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$676.32

Value

$447.92

PnL

-$228.4

Record

66%

101015-52904 (153919)

ply-pm0CTR

Invested

$370.97

Value

$362.36

PnL

-$8.61

Record

50%

6371-6378 (12749)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$355.83

Value

$340.79

PnL

-$15.04

Record

54%

16566-13992 (30558)

Both legs:

Down$135.2543.6¢+$117.75

Up$220.5846.5¢-$132.79

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$333.07

Value

$305.23

PnL

-$27.84

Record

51%

12072-11547 (23619)

cryingbabydicer87

Down

Invested

$285.29

Value

$286.09

PnL

+$0.8

Record

48%

10588-11259 (21847)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Down

Invested

$269.01

Value

$280.51

PnL

+$11.5

Record

52%

10543-9889 (20432)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Invested

$940.95

Value

$242.35

PnL

+$23.68

Record

53%

8272-7248 (15520)

bosona

Down

Invested

$333.62

Value

$241.43

PnL

-$92.19

Record

55%

51695-42148 (93843)

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$194.63

Value

$232.14

PnL

+$37.51

Record

45%

40086-48022 (88108)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$151.65

Value

$213.72

PnL

+$62.07

Record

47%

6525-7238 (13763)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$202.37

Value

$210.61

PnL

+$8.24

Record

55%

14939-12410 (27349)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$168.64

Value

$190.51

PnL

+$21.87

Record

56%

15897-12510 (28407)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$115.48

Value

$155.98

PnL

+$40.51

Record

55%

52350-42819 (95169)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$147.87

Value

$147.79

PnL

-$0.08

Record

59%

63890-45025 (108915)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down

Invested

$101.7

Value

$136.65

PnL

+$34.95

Record

52%

21099-19255 (40354)

BoneOhioCTR

Invested

$136.19

Value

$120.82

PnL

-$15.37

Record

74%

105071-37075 (142146)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$178.77

Value

$116.82

PnL

-$61.95

Record

55%

9839-8152 (17991)

Both legs:

Down$55.4561.5¢+$14.38

Up$123.3259.1¢-$76.34

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$76.93

Value

$111.23

PnL

+$34.3

Record

54%

13654-11684 (25338)

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$98.6

Value

$104.51

PnL

+$5.91

Record

54%

10134-8485 (18619)

Both legs:

Down$42.8843.6¢+$37.23

Up$55.7242.3¢-$31.32

13897651ARB<$100

Invested

$111.33

Value

$97.08

PnL

-$14.25

Record

56%

8793-6866 (15659)

Both legs:

Invested

$114.24

Value

$85.59

PnL

-$28.64

Record

65%

130257-70136 (200393)

wzbbb<$100

Down

Invested

$71.94

Value

$76.09

PnL

+$4.15

Record

57%

9912-7415 (17327)

antsaslykuARB<$100

Invested

$97.61

Value

$54.85

PnL

-$42.76

Record

65%

114575-61604 (176179)

Both legs:

Up$67.9355.1¢-$40.22

Down$29.6884.8¢-$2.55

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

21 of 32 top traders (66%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.