No settled consensus market yet · PM monthly #594 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$0
Source
PM monthly #594
Record (90 d)
368/376 · 98%
Trades
0
Markets
0
Volume
$0
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Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 2 on the consensus side (50%)- Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?Yes $114 · now 13¢ · in at 22¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $66 · now 78¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (63% of 144)
Specialties
622 settled consensus markets · held side won 98% at an average entry of 53¢- Crypto
+45 pts
side won 98% of 621 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +44%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 78% of 9)
- 30–50¢: 26%(won 97% of 162)
- 50–70¢: 70%(won 98% of 433)
- 70¢ and up: 3%(won 100% of 18)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.