Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Down (75%) · Down at 61¢ · $717 held · ends Nov 6

Up40¢Down60¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 75%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$717.11

Combined PnL

-$0.47

Research grade

NeutralDown at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 12 top traders (75%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up40%

Down61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up3 traders

Total Value$106.15

Total Shares169

Combined PnL+$2.08

Down9 traders

Total Value$109.94

Total Shares171

Combined PnL-$2.56

Up — 25%Down — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 42.9¢	$150.49	$164.73	+$14.24	54% 16566-13992 (30558)
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.9¢	$94.9	$116.25	+$21.35
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.5¢	$55.59	$48.48	-$7.1
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 53¢	$126.22	$121.58	-$4.64	50% 6371-6378 (12749)
└ Up leg	Upavg 53¢	$81.5	$80.73	-$0.77
└ Down leg	Downavg 52¢	$44.72	$40.85	-$3.87
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 50.2¢	$70.19	$76.62	+$6.43	54% 13654-11684 (25338)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.2¢	$47.69	$45.12	-$2.57
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.5¢	$22.5	$31.5	+$9
10 1000monkeysARB<$100	Upavg 50.4¢	$72.86	$70.92	-$1.94	59% 11272-7737 (19009)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.4¢	$39.39	$41	+$1.61
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.1¢	$33.48	$29.92	-$3.55
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 52.7¢	$69.98	$67.17	-$2.81	66% 101015-52904 (153919)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.7¢	$47.24	$47.07	-$0.17
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.7¢	$22.74	$20.1	-$2.64
GO GoodFallenCTR<$100	Upavg 45¢	$54.05	$53.13	-$0.92	55% 14939-12410 (27349)
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100	Downavg 52.3¢	$44.23	$40.8	-$3.43	52% 21099-19255 (40354)
ST stepaheadCTR<$100	Upavg 51.8¢	$37.32	$36.36	-$0.96	54% 10134-8485 (18619)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100	Downavg 48.8¢	$20.69	$23.27	+$2.58	52% 10430-9438 (19868)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Upavg 40¢	$12.7	$16.67	+$3.97	51% 12072-11547 (23619)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 50.7¢	$12.79	$12.48	-$0.31	56% 8793-6866 (15659)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 60.7¢	$11.53	$11.49	-$0.04	47% 6525-7238 (13763)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 60.7¢	$10.11	$10.08	-$0.03	65% 114575-61604 (176179)
BO bosona<$100	Downavg 61¢	$6.4	$4.98	-$1.42	55% 51695-42148 (93843)
machinelearned<$100	Downavg 47¢	$4.08	$4.12	+$0.04	55% 9839-8152 (17991)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100	Downavg 48¢	$1.46	$1.5	+$0.05	52% 10543-9889 (20432)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 60.7¢	$1.21	$1.21	-$0	49% 80962-84399 (165361)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$150.49

Value

$164.73

PnL

+$14.24

Record

54%

16566-13992 (30558)

Both legs:

Up$94.942.9¢+$21.35

Down$55.5954.5¢-$7.1

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$126.22

Value

$121.58

PnL

-$4.64

Record

50%

6371-6378 (12749)

Both legs:

Up$81.553¢-$0.77

Down$44.7252¢-$3.87

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$70.19

Value

$76.62

PnL

+$6.43

Record

54%

13654-11684 (25338)

Both legs:

Down$47.6950.2¢-$2.57

Up$22.537.5¢+$9

1000monkeysARB<$100

Invested

$72.86

Value

$70.92

PnL

-$1.94

Record

59%

11272-7737 (19009)

Both legs:

Up$39.3950.4¢+$1.61

Down$33.4853.1¢-$3.55

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$69.98

Value

$67.17

PnL

-$2.81

Record

66%

101015-52904 (153919)

Both legs:

Up$47.2452.7¢-$0.17

Down$22.7453.7¢-$2.64

GoodFallenCTR<$100

Invested

$54.05

Value

$53.13

PnL

-$0.92

Record

55%

14939-12410 (27349)

x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100

Down

Invested

$44.23

Value

$40.8

PnL

-$3.43

Record

52%

21099-19255 (40354)

stepaheadCTR<$100

Invested

$37.32

Value

$36.36

PnL

-$0.96

Record

54%

10134-8485 (18619)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100

Down

Invested

$20.69

Value

$23.27

PnL

+$2.58

Record

52%

10430-9438 (19868)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$12.7

Value

$16.67

PnL

+$3.97

Record

51%

12072-11547 (23619)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$12.79

Value

$12.48

PnL

-$0.31

Record

56%

8793-6866 (15659)

asdcaxz<$100

Down

Invested

$11.53

Value

$11.49

PnL

-$0.04

Record

47%

6525-7238 (13763)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$10.11

Value

$10.08

PnL

-$0.03

Record

65%

114575-61604 (176179)

bosona<$100

Down

Invested

$6.4

Value

$4.98

PnL

-$1.42

Record

55%

51695-42148 (93843)

machinelearned<$100

Down

Invested

$4.08

Value

$4.12

PnL

+$0.04

Record

55%

9839-8152 (17991)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100

Down

Invested

$1.46

Value

$1.5

PnL

+$0.05

Record

52%

10543-9889 (20432)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$1.21

Value

$1.21

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

80962-84399 (165361)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 61%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 12 top traders (75%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.2%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$58.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

158.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.