Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET

25 of 29 top Polymarket traders hold Up (86%) · Up at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 6

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 86%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

$358.14

Smart Money Entry

77.8¢ → 100¢

+28% since entry · 25 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

25 of 29 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up25 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares4,975

Combined PnL+$431.23

Down4 traders

Total Value$62.83

Total Shares407

Combined PnL-$73.1

Up — 86%Down — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 87.3¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$99.42	66% 101015-52904 (153919)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 80.6¢	$490.51	$510.92	+$20.41	56% 15897-12510 (28407)
MO mo-money	Upavg 76¢	$339.89	$442.36	+$102.47	55% 52350-42819 (95169)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 74.1¢	$319.92	$330.17	+$10.25	47% 6525-7238 (13763)
BO bosona	Upavg 75¢	$249.68	$329.26	+$79.58	55% 51695-42148 (93843)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 75.1¢	$326.25	$312.05	-$14.2	54% 16566-13992 (30558)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 73.7¢	$243.81	$279.62	+$35.8	50% 6371-6378 (12749)
pspspsps5	Upavg 73.1¢	$207.49	$241.75	+$34.26	45% 40086-48022 (88108)
10 1000monkeys	Upavg 64.7¢	$197.29	$209.22	+$11.94	59% 11272-7737 (19009)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 86.7¢	$211.34	$208.92	-$2.42	51% 12072-11547 (23619)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 70¢	$160.45	$148.63	-$11.82	55% 14939-12410 (27349)
machinelearned	Upavg 75.3¢	$116.85	$146.19	+$29.34	55% 9839-8152 (17991)
AL almach<$100	Upavg 76.9¢	$71.98	$91.33	+$19.35	55% 50160-41769 (91929)
FairValueMachine<$100	Upavg 73.1¢	$98.8	$88.36	-$10.44	54% 13654-11684 (25338)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100	Upavg 74.2¢	$89.72	$82.15	-$7.57	52% 21099-19255 (40354)
└ Up leg	Upavg 74.2¢	$45.07	$51.3	+$6.23
└ Down leg	Downavg 22.4¢	$44.65	$30.85	-$13.8
ST stepahead<$100	Upavg 62.7¢	$58.34	$76.68	+$18.34	54% 10134-8485 (18619)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 51.9¢	$79.13	$76.4	-$2.73	56% 8793-6866 (15659)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 77.5¢	$49.92	$64.35	+$14.43	66% 130591-67529 (198120)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 81.1¢	$40.65	$38.33	-$2.31	61% 98591-62582 (161173)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR<$100	Downavg 42¢	$51.24	$35.81	-$15.44	52% 10430-9438 (19868)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 68.8¢	$34.77	$33.61	-$1.17	65% 130257-70136 (200393)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100	Upavg 72¢	$16.8	$21	+$4.2	52% 10543-9889 (20432)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 86.5¢	$21.62	$19.13	-$2.5	61% 46076-29253 (75329)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 33.5¢	$72.68	$17.14	-$55.54	65% 114575-61604 (176179)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 77.3¢	$19.32	$16.63	-$2.69	63% 42429-25148 (67577)

Bonereaper

Invested

$1,126.24

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$99.42

Record

66%

101015-52904 (153919)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$490.51

Value

$510.92

PnL

+$20.41

Record

56%

15897-12510 (28407)

mo-money

Invested

$339.89

Value

$442.36

PnL

+$102.47

Record

55%

52350-42819 (95169)

asdcaxz

Invested

$319.92

Value

$330.17

PnL

+$10.25

Record

47%

6525-7238 (13763)

bosona

Invested

$249.68

Value

$329.26

PnL

+$79.58

Record

55%

51695-42148 (93843)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$326.25

Value

$312.05

PnL

-$14.2

Record

54%

16566-13992 (30558)

ply-pm0

Invested

$243.81

Value

$279.62

PnL

+$35.8

Record

50%

6371-6378 (12749)

pspspsps5

Invested

$207.49

Value

$241.75

PnL

+$34.26

Record

45%

40086-48022 (88108)

1000monkeys

Invested

$197.29

Value

$209.22

PnL

+$11.94

Record

59%

11272-7737 (19009)

blue.birds

Invested

$211.34

Value

$208.92

PnL

-$2.42

Record

51%

12072-11547 (23619)

GoodFallen

Invested

$160.45

Value

$148.63

PnL

-$11.82

Record

55%

14939-12410 (27349)

machinelearned

Invested

$116.85

Value

$146.19

PnL

+$29.34

Record

55%

9839-8152 (17991)

almach<$100

Invested

$71.98

Value

$91.33

PnL

+$19.35

Record

55%

50160-41769 (91929)

FairValueMachine<$100

Invested

$98.8

Value

$88.36

PnL

-$10.44

Record

54%

13654-11684 (25338)

x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100

Invested

$89.72

Value

$82.15

PnL

-$7.57

Record

52%

21099-19255 (40354)

Both legs:

Up$45.0774.2¢+$6.23

Down$44.6522.4¢-$13.8

stepahead<$100

Invested

$58.34

Value

$76.68

PnL

+$18.34

Record

54%

10134-8485 (18619)

13897651<$100

Invested

$79.13

Value

$76.4

PnL

-$2.73

Record

56%

8793-6866 (15659)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$49.92

Value

$64.35

PnL

+$14.43

Record

66%

130591-67529 (198120)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$40.65

Value

$38.33

PnL

-$2.31

Record

61%

98591-62582 (161173)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$51.24

Value

$35.81

PnL

-$15.44

Record

52%

10430-9438 (19868)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$34.77

Value

$33.61

PnL

-$1.17

Record

65%

130257-70136 (200393)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100

Invested

$16.8

Value

$21

PnL

+$4.2

Record

52%

10543-9889 (20432)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$21.62

Value

$19.13

PnL

-$2.5

Record

61%

46076-29253 (75329)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$72.68

Value

$17.14

PnL

-$55.54

Record

65%

114575-61604 (176179)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$19.32

Value

$16.63

PnL

-$2.69

Record

63%

42429-25148 (67577)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

25 of 29 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.