Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET

Resolved Up. 16% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Down 16%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$-3.6K

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 25 top traders (16%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up21 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,000

Combined PnL+$255.75

Down4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares8,524

Combined PnL$-3.8K

Up — 84%Down — 16%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 89.2¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$103.8	66% 101015-52904 (153919)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 82.7¢	$298.15	$282.47	-$15.68	50% 6371-6378 (12749)
10 1000monkeys	Upavg 73.8¢	$249.68	$271.78	+$22.1	59% 11272-7737 (19009)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 30¢	$259.81	$146.48	-$113.33	54% 16566-13992 (30558)
└ Up leg	Upavg 77.6¢	$113.71	$146.48	+$32.77
└ Down leg	Downavg 30¢	$146.1	—	-$146.1
FairValueMachine	Upavg 81¢	$117.46	$121	+$3.54	54% 13654-11684 (25338)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Upavg 61.9¢	$79.47	$123.76	+$44.29	52% 10430-9438 (19868)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 71¢	$84.94	$113.56	+$28.62	47% 6525-7238 (13763)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 73.1¢	$107.34	$106.99	-$0.35	51% 12072-11547 (23619)
PA Papeasy	Upavg 91.2¢	$102.23	$112.08	+$9.85	49% 4171-4276 (8447)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Upavg 79¢	$119.08	$90	-$29.08	52% 21099-19255 (40354)
MO mo-money	Upavg 74.2¢	$107.77	$92.94	-$14.84	55% 52350-42819 (95169)
machinelearned<$100	Upavg 82.4¢	$73.08	$76.52	+$3.44	55% 9839-8152 (17991)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Upavg 90¢	$72.9	$80	+$7.1	12% 18908-134163 (153071)
GO GoodFallen<$100	Upavg 68.9¢	$79.47	$63.25	-$16.22	55% 14939-12410 (27349)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 70.8¢	$37.16	$52.46	+$15.3	66% 130591-67529 (198120)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100	Upavg 61¢	$47.89	$77.41	+$29.52	52% 10543-9889 (20432)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 65¢	$48.61	$74.79	+$26.19	56% 8793-6866 (15659)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 74.4¢	$37.19	$50	+$12.81	65% 130257-70136 (200393)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 92.4¢	$34.19	$37	+$2.81	61% 98591-62582 (161173)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 60.5¢	$12.1	$20	+$7.9	55% 51660-42833 (94493)
ST stepahead<$100	Upavg 59¢	$14.16	$24	+$9.84	54% 10134-8485 (18619)
AL almachCTR<$100	Downavg 6¢	$33.07	—	-$33.07	55% 50160-41769 (91929)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Upavg 51.7¢	$5.18	$10	+$4.83	57% 9912-7415 (17327)
arcsine-barristerCTR	Downavg 49.6¢	$3.8K	—	$-3.8K	56% 3906-3034 (6940)
PB PBot-5CTR<$100	Downavg 16.9¢	$1.86	—	-$1.86	52% 12320-11359 (23679)

Bonereaper

Invested

$1,016.08

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$103.8

Record

66%

101015-52904 (153919)

ply-pm0

Invested

$298.15

Value

$282.47

PnL

-$15.68

Record

50%

6371-6378 (12749)

1000monkeys

Invested

$249.68

Value

$271.78

PnL

+$22.1

Record

59%

11272-7737 (19009)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$259.81

Value

$146.48

PnL

-$113.33

Record

54%

16566-13992 (30558)

Both legs:

Up$113.7177.6¢+$32.77

Down$146.130¢-$146.1

FairValueMachine

Invested

$117.46

Value

$121

PnL

+$3.54

Record

54%

13654-11684 (25338)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Invested

$79.47

Value

$123.76

PnL

+$44.29

Record

52%

10430-9438 (19868)

asdcaxz

Invested

$84.94

Value

$113.56

PnL

+$28.62

Record

47%

6525-7238 (13763)

blue.birds

Invested

$107.34

Value

$106.99

PnL

-$0.35

Record

51%

12072-11547 (23619)

Papeasy

Invested

$102.23

Value

$112.08

PnL

+$9.85

Record

49%

4171-4276 (8447)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Invested

$119.08

Value

$90

PnL

-$29.08

Record

52%

21099-19255 (40354)

mo-money

Invested

$107.77

Value

$92.94

PnL

-$14.84

Record

55%

52350-42819 (95169)

machinelearned<$100

Invested

$73.08

Value

$76.52

PnL

+$3.44

Record

55%

9839-8152 (17991)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Invested

$72.9

Value

$80

PnL

+$7.1

Record

12%

18908-134163 (153071)

GoodFallen<$100

Invested

$79.47

Value

$63.25

PnL

-$16.22

Record

55%

14939-12410 (27349)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$37.16

Value

$52.46

PnL

+$15.3

Record

66%

130591-67529 (198120)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100

Invested

$47.89

Value

$77.41

PnL

+$29.52

Record

52%

10543-9889 (20432)

13897651<$100

Invested

$48.61

Value

$74.79

PnL

+$26.19

Record

56%

8793-6866 (15659)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$37.19

Value

$50

PnL

+$12.81

Record

65%

130257-70136 (200393)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$34.19

Value

$37

PnL

+$2.81

Record

61%

98591-62582 (161173)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$12.1

Value

$20

PnL

+$7.9

Record

55%

51660-42833 (94493)

stepahead<$100

Invested

$14.16

Value

$24

PnL

+$9.84

Record

54%

10134-8485 (18619)

almachCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$33.07

Value

—

PnL

-$33.07

Record

55%

50160-41769 (91929)

wzbbb<$100

Invested

$5.18

Value

$10

PnL

+$4.83

Record

57%

9912-7415 (17327)

arcsine-barristerCTR

Down

Invested

$3,769.12

Value

—

PnL

$-3.8K

Record

56%

3906-3034 (6940)

PBot-5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.86

Value

—

PnL

-$1.86

Record

52%

12320-11359 (23679)

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 25 top traders (16%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xce26bb88...bcc6f5

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794007800

Traders in this Market

Bonereaper

Up — $1.1K

+$103.8

ply-pm0

Up — $282.47

-$15.68

1000monkeys

Up — $271.78

+$22.1

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$113.33

FairValueMachine

Up — $121

+$3.54

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Up — $123.76

+$44.29

asdcaxz

Up — $113.56

+$28.62

blue.birds

Up — $106.99

-$0.35

Papeasy

Up — $112.08

+$9.85

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Up — $90

-$29.08

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