Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET

21 of 37 top Polymarket traders hold Down (57%) · Down at 100¢ · $15K held · ended Nov 6

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 57%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.9K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Entry

69.2¢ → 100¢

+44% since entry · 21 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

21 of 37 top traders (57%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down21 traders

Total Value$9.8K

Total Shares10,661

Combined PnL+$80.85

Up16 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares7,032

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Down — 57%Up — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 60.4¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$19.02	54% 16566-13992 (30558)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 67.6¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$4.42	56% 15897-12510 (28407)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 93.9¢	$964.83	$1.0K	+$58.03	89% 29315-3554 (32869)
OX oxe78sh4w98	Downavg 65.1¢	$1.1K	$998.3	-$57.71	53% 591-526 (1117)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 72.4¢	$942.31	$910.21	-$32.11	47% 6525-7238 (13763)
machinelearnedCTR	Upavg 35.5¢	$842.14	$890.87	+$48.73	55% 9839-8152 (17991)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 74.2¢	$882.48	$853.33	-$29.15	51% 12072-11547 (23619)
PL ply-pm0CTR	Upavg 39.2¢	$944.81	$762.53	-$182.28	50% 6371-6378 (12749)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 58.3¢	$796.92	$683.63	-$113.29	55% 14939-12410 (27349)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 66.8¢	$861.62	$677.19	-$184.43	66% 101015-52904 (153919)
NIULAI4CTR	Upavg 72.8¢	$1.2K	$626.08	-$621.92	75% 9876-3300 (13176)
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489	Downavg 69.1¢	$419.2	$525.09	+$105.88	75% 262-87 (349)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100	Downavg 53.8¢	$432.62	$468.93	+$36.31	52% 21099-19255 (40354)
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.4¢	$179.92	$313.93	+$134.01
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.8¢	$252.7	$155	-$97.7
10 1000monkeysARB<$100	Upavg 44.5¢	$387.06	$428.37	+$41.3	59% 11272-7737 (19009)
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.5¢	$151.34	$224.2	+$72.86
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.5¢	$235.73	$204.17	-$31.56
KA KARIZMATIKUCTR	Upavg 43.4¢	$440.23	$400.9	-$39.33	52% 707-663 (1370)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Downavg 75.9¢	$345.06	$335.4	-$9.65	52% 10543-9889 (20432)
FairValueMachineCTR	Upavg 43.3¢	$477.03	$301.82	-$175.21	54% 13654-11684 (25338)
Atomforge	Downavg 66.8¢	$202.33	$256.27	+$53.94	64% 4935-2794 (7729)
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Upavg 37.2¢	$210.09	$249.03	+$38.95	45% 40086-48022 (88108)
└ Down leg	Downavg 27.1¢	$53.99	$154.54	+$100.55
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.2¢	$156.1	$94.5	-$61.6
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 37.2¢	$153.76	$207.49	+$53.73	54% 10134-8485 (18619)
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.2¢	$107.07	$133.92	+$26.85
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.9¢	$46.69	$73.57	+$26.89
0X 0x9f672c31cb41362e30558eee9202e	Downavg 63.9¢	$126.62	$193.65	+$260.77	55% 1686-1401 (3087)
HS HsilverbasherCTR	Upavg 39¢	$184.38	$186.77	+$2.39	12% 18908-134163 (153071)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Downavg 86.6¢	$202.68	$162.84	-$39.84	52% 10430-9438 (19868)
MayorMamdani	Downavg 87.9¢	$192.28	$158.82	-$33.46	55% 51660-42833 (94493)
AL almach	Downavg 52.1¢	$143.28	$158.01	+$14.73	55% 50160-41769 (91929)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$1,207.26

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$19.02

Record

54%

16566-13992 (30558)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$1,171.42

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$4.42

Record

56%

15897-12510 (28407)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$964.83

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$58.03

Record

89%

29315-3554 (32869)

oxe78sh4w98

Down

Invested

$1,056.01

Value

$998.3

PnL

-$57.71

Record

53%

591-526 (1117)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$942.31

Value

$910.21

PnL

-$32.11

Record

47%

6525-7238 (13763)

machinelearnedCTR

Invested

$842.14

Value

$890.87

PnL

+$48.73

Record

55%

9839-8152 (17991)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$882.48

Value

$853.33

PnL

-$29.15

Record

51%

12072-11547 (23619)

ply-pm0CTR

Invested

$944.81

Value

$762.53

PnL

-$182.28

Record

50%

6371-6378 (12749)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$796.92

Value

$683.63

PnL

-$113.29

Record

55%

14939-12410 (27349)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$861.62

Value

$677.19

PnL

-$184.43

Record

66%

101015-52904 (153919)

NIULAI4CTR

Invested

$1,248

Value

$626.08

PnL

-$621.92

Record

75%

9876-3300 (13176)

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down

Invested

$419.2

Value

$525.09

PnL

+$105.88

Record

75%

262-87 (349)

x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100

Down

Invested

$432.62

Value

$468.93

PnL

+$36.31

Record

52%

21099-19255 (40354)

Both legs:

Up$179.9238.4¢+$134.01

Down$252.753.8¢-$97.7

1000monkeysARB<$100

Invested

$387.06

Value

$428.37

PnL

+$41.3

Record

59%

11272-7737 (19009)

Both legs:

Down$151.3441.5¢+$72.86

Up$235.7344.5¢-$31.56

KARIZMATIKUCTR

Invested

$440.23

Value

$400.9

PnL

-$39.33

Record

52%

707-663 (1370)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Down

Invested

$345.06

Value

$335.4

PnL

-$9.65

Record

52%

10543-9889 (20432)

FairValueMachineCTR

Invested

$477.03

Value

$301.82

PnL

-$175.21

Record

54%

13654-11684 (25338)

Atomforge

Down

Invested

$202.33

Value

$256.27

PnL

+$53.94

Record

64%

4935-2794 (7729)

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Invested

$210.09

Value

$249.03

PnL

+$38.95

Record

45%

40086-48022 (88108)

Both legs:

Down$53.9927.1¢+$100.55

Up$156.137.2¢-$61.6

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$153.76

Value

$207.49

PnL

+$53.73

Record

54%

10134-8485 (18619)

Both legs:

Up$107.0737.2¢+$26.85

Down$46.6933.9¢+$26.89

0x9f672c31cb41362e30558eee9202e

Down

Invested

$126.62

Value

$193.65

PnL

+$260.77

Record

55%

1686-1401 (3087)

HsilverbasherCTR

Invested

$184.38

Value

$186.77

PnL

+$2.39

Record

12%

18908-134163 (153071)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down

Invested

$202.68

Value

$162.84

PnL

-$39.84

Record

52%

10430-9438 (19868)

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$192.28

Value

$158.82

PnL

-$33.46

Record

55%

51660-42833 (94493)

almach

Down

Invested

$143.28

Value

$158.01

PnL

+$14.73

Record

55%

50160-41769 (91929)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

21 of 37 top traders (57%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.