Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET

16 of 31 top Polymarket traders hold Down (52%) · Down at 100¢ · $16K held · ended Nov 6

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 52%

10 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.8K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

74¢ → 100¢

+35% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 31 top traders (52%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down16 traders

Total Value$7.9K

Total Shares8,230

Combined PnL+$475.92

Up15 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares5,623

Combined PnL+$935.16

Down — 52%Up — 48%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BoneOhio	Downavg 98.9¢	$3.5K	$3.4K	-$12.61	74% 105071-37075 (142146)
PL ply-pm0CTR	Upavg 26.2¢	$1.2K	$2.2K	+$1.0K	50% 6371-6378 (12749)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 51.2¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$213.36	54% 16566-13992 (30558)
GO GoodFallenCTR	Upavg 43.5¢	$829.79	$918.03	+$88.25	55% 14939-12410 (27349)
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Upavg 67.8¢	$1.5K	$831.63	-$640.68	75% 9876-3300 (13176)
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.8¢	$471.75	$543.99	+$72.24
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.8¢	$1.0K	$287.65	-$712.92
FairValueMachine	Downavg 46.6¢	$652.7	$773.2	+$120.5	54% 13654-11684 (25338)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100	Upavg 46.7¢	$703.45	$725.62	+$22.17	52% 21099-19255 (40354)
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.2¢	$334.92	$571.6	+$236.68
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.7¢	$368.53	$154.02	-$214.5
GA gansinimenCTR	Upavg 82.3¢	$506.8	$568.28	+$61.47	51% 17654-17053 (34707)
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Downavg 79.3¢	$717.75	$518.31	-$199.44	47% 6525-7238 (13763)
└ Down leg	Downavg 79.3¢	$387.03	$393	+$5.97
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.5¢	$330.72	$125.31	-$205.41
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Downavg 67¢	$480.13	$485.35	+$5.22	51% 12072-11547 (23619)
└ Down leg	Downavg 67¢	$320.7	$385.35	+$64.66
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.1¢	$159.43	$100	-$59.43
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Downavg 89.4¢	$436.23	$335.36	-$100.86	52% 10543-9889 (20432)
BO bosona	Downavg 62.4¢	$246.62	$285.81	+$39.19	55% 51695-42148 (93843)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 27.2¢	$302.64	$264.39	-$38.25	55% 9839-8152 (17991)
└ Up leg	Upavg 27.2¢	$226.51	$162.54	-$63.97
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.2¢	$76.13	$101.85	+$25.72
MO mo-money	Downavg 44.7¢	$210.19	$254.99	+$44.8	55% 52350-42819 (95169)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100	Upavg 46.8¢	$327.16	$239.35	-$87.81	52% 10430-9438 (19868)
└ Down leg	Downavg 72.4¢	$148.18	$164.71	+$16.52
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.8¢	$178.98	$74.65	-$104.33
BO BonereaperCTR	Upavg 71.3¢	$290.01	$229.08	-$60.93	66% 101015-52904 (153919)
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Upavg 40¢	$259.39	$227.42	-$31.96	45% 40086-48022 (88108)
└ Up leg	Upavg 40¢	$212.25	$156.64	-$55.6
└ Down leg	Downavg 47¢	$47.14	$70.78	+$23.64
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 23.1¢	$54.17	$181.35	+$127.18	57% 9912-7415 (17327)
10 1000monkeysARB<$100	Upavg 51.8¢	$174.73	$178.92	+$4.18	59% 11272-7737 (19009)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.8¢	$108.99	$108.27	-$0.72
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.1¢	$65.75	$70.65	+$4.9
MayorMamdani	Downavg 90.7¢	$165.63	$164.18	-$1.44	55% 51660-42833 (94493)
AL almachCTR	Upavg 40.7¢	$118.24	$150	+$31.76	55% 50160-41769 (91929)
PA PapeasyARB<$100	Upavg 67.4¢	$177.3	$139.69	-$37.61	49% 4171-4276 (8447)
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.8¢	$61.79	$106.28	+$44.49
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.4¢	$115.51	$33.4	-$82.1
Atomforge	Downavg 49.6¢	$64.27	$119.89	+$55.62	64% 4935-2794 (7729)
OX oxe78sh4w98	Downavg 58.7¢	$111.78	$113.27	+$1.49	53% 591-526 (1117)
wowitsamazing<$100	Downavg 54¢	$51.66	$95.11	+$43.44	67% 22487-10831 (33318)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$3,461.17

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$12.61

Record

74%

105071-37075 (142146)

ply-pm0CTR

Invested

$1,206.66

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

50%

6371-6378 (12749)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$1,663.76

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$213.36

Record

54%

16566-13992 (30558)

GoodFallenCTR

Invested

$829.79

Value

$918.03

PnL

+$88.25

Record

55%

14939-12410 (27349)

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Invested

$1,472.31

Value

$831.63

PnL

-$640.68

Record

75%

9876-3300 (13176)

Both legs:

Down$471.7569.8¢+$72.24

Up$1,000.5667.8¢-$712.92

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$652.7

Value

$773.2

PnL

+$120.5

Record

54%

13654-11684 (25338)

x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100

Invested

$703.45

Value

$725.62

PnL

+$22.17

Record

52%

21099-19255 (40354)

Both legs:

Down$334.9247.2¢+$236.68

Up$368.5346.7¢-$214.5

gansinimenCTR

Invested

$506.8

Value

$568.28

PnL

+$61.47

Record

51%

17654-17053 (34707)

asdcaxzARB<$100

Down

Invested

$717.75

Value

$518.31

PnL

-$199.44

Record

47%

6525-7238 (13763)

Both legs:

Down$387.0379.3¢+$5.97

Up$330.7251.5¢-$205.41

blue.birdsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$480.13

Value

$485.35

PnL

+$5.22

Record

51%

12072-11547 (23619)

Both legs:

Down$320.767¢+$64.66

Up$159.4331.1¢-$59.43

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Down

Invested

$436.23

Value

$335.36

PnL

-$100.86

Record

52%

10543-9889 (20432)

bosona

Down

Invested

$246.62

Value

$285.81

PnL

+$39.19

Record

55%

51695-42148 (93843)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$302.64

Value

$264.39

PnL

-$38.25

Record

55%

9839-8152 (17991)

Both legs:

Up$226.5127.2¢-$63.97

Down$76.1360.2¢+$25.72

mo-money

Down

Invested

$210.19

Value

$254.99

PnL

+$44.8

Record

55%

52350-42819 (95169)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100

Invested

$327.16

Value

$239.35

PnL

-$87.81

Record

52%

10430-9438 (19868)

Both legs:

Down$148.1872.4¢+$16.52

Up$178.9846.8¢-$104.33

BonereaperCTR

Invested

$290.01

Value

$229.08

PnL

-$60.93

Record

66%

101015-52904 (153919)

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Invested

$259.39

Value

$227.42

PnL

-$31.96

Record

45%

40086-48022 (88108)

Both legs:

Invested

$54.17

Value

$181.35

PnL

+$127.18

Record

57%

9912-7415 (17327)

1000monkeysARB<$100

Invested

$174.73

Value

$178.92

PnL

+$4.18

Record

59%

11272-7737 (19009)

Both legs:

Invested

$165.63

Value

$164.18

PnL

-$1.44

Record

55%

51660-42833 (94493)

almachCTR

Invested

$118.24

Value

$150

PnL

+$31.76

Record

55%

50160-41769 (91929)

PapeasyARB<$100

Invested

$177.3

Value

$139.69

PnL

-$37.61

Record

49%

4171-4276 (8447)

Both legs:

Down$61.7946.8¢+$44.49

Up$115.5167.4¢-$82.1

Atomforge

Down

Invested

$64.27

Value

$119.89

PnL

+$55.62

Record

64%

4935-2794 (7729)

oxe78sh4w98

Down

Invested

$111.78

Value

$113.27

PnL

+$1.49

Record

53%

591-526 (1117)

wowitsamazing<$100

Down

Invested

$51.66

Value

$95.11

PnL

+$43.44

Record

67%

22487-10831 (33318)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 31 top traders (52%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.