Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET

22 of 31 top Polymarket traders hold Down (71%) · Down at 100¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 6

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 71%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.7K

Combined PnL

-$38.57

Smart Money Entry

65.6¢ → 100¢

+52% since entry · 22 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

22 of 31 top traders (71%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down22 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares5,821

Combined PnL+$611.84

Up9 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares4,265

Combined PnL-$650.4

Down — 71%Up — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 63¢	$729.11	$789.81	+$60.7	54% 16566-13992 (30558)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 76.9¢	$934.93	$755.43	-$179.5	50% 6371-6378 (12749)
KA KARIZMATIKUCTR	Upavg 47.6¢	$1.2K	$720.29	-$442.23	52% 707-663 (1370)
10 1000monkeysARB<$100	Upavg 48.1¢	$556.92	$579.21	+$22.29	59% 11272-7737 (19009)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.1¢	$319.63	$328.71	+$9.08
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.8¢	$237.29	$250.5	+$13.21
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 62.1¢	$455.63	$502.3	+$46.66	47% 6525-7238 (13763)
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Upavg 27.9¢	$395.09	$420.57	+$25.48	56% 77387-59788 (137175)
└ Up leg	Upavg 27.9¢	$281.39	$267.32	-$14.07
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.5¢	$113.7	$153.25	+$39.55
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Upavg 42.2¢	$541.51	$402.85	-$138.65	56% 15897-12510 (28407)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 29.5¢	$313.98	$370.98	+$57	51% 17654-17053 (34707)
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.5¢	$235.99	$227.99	-$8
└ Down leg	Downavg 39¢	$78	$142.99	+$65
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 40.3¢	$301.17	$349.3	+$48.12	54% 10134-8485 (18619)
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.3¢	$189.93	$233.25	+$43.32
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.4¢	$111.24	$116.04	+$4.8
OX oxe78sh4w98	Downavg 64.4¢	$425.08	$333.3	-$91.78	53% 591-526 (1117)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 61.7¢	$362.84	$327.65	+$292.58	55% 14939-12410 (27349)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Downavg 93.2¢	$419.38	$327.45	-$91.94	52% 10430-9438 (19868)
machinelearned	Downavg 60¢	$302.5	$313.49	+$10.99	55% 9839-8152 (17991)
Bossgirl	Downavg 79.6¢	$252.44	$258.35	+$5.91	54% 4760-4006 (8766)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 58.4¢	$213.79	$245.42	+$277.17	54% 13654-11684 (25338)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 66.9¢	$246.92	$241.41	-$5.51	51% 12072-11547 (23619)
13 13897651ARB<$100	Downavg 54.6¢	$243.93	$228.94	-$14.99	56% 8793-6866 (15659)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.6¢	$132.37	$136.94	+$4.57
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.7¢	$111.56	$92	-$19.56
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Downavg 62.5¢	$246.79	$226.04	-$20.75	52% 21099-19255 (40354)
BO bosona	Downavg 40.7¢	$96.82	$202.41	+$105.6	55% 51695-42148 (93843)
MO mo-money	Downavg 40¢	$76.3	$176.41	+$100.1	55% 52350-42819 (95169)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 52.7¢	$145.43	$160.45	+$15.02	66% 101015-52904 (153919)
pspspsps5CTR	Upavg 44.3¢	$184.37	$126.24	-$58.12	45% 40086-48022 (88108)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Downavg 45.6¢	$90.26	$122.2	+$31.93	52% 10543-9889 (20432)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 69.1¢	$66.74	$94.34	+$27.6	56% 60523-47081 (107604)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 85.3¢	$83.7	$84.63	+$1.02	65% 130257-70136 (200393)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$729.11

Value

$789.81

PnL

+$60.7

Record

54%

16566-13992 (30558)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$934.93

Value

$755.43

PnL

-$179.5

Record

50%

6371-6378 (12749)

KARIZMATIKUCTR

Invested

$1,162.52

Value

$720.29

PnL

-$442.23

Record

52%

707-663 (1370)

1000monkeysARB<$100

Invested

$556.92

Value

$579.21

PnL

+$22.29

Record

59%

11272-7737 (19009)

Both legs:

Up$319.6348.1¢+$9.08

Down$237.2947.8¢+$13.21

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$455.63

Value

$502.3

PnL

+$46.66

Record

47%

6525-7238 (13763)

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Invested

$395.09

Value

$420.57

PnL

+$25.48

Record

56%

77387-59788 (137175)

Both legs:

Up$281.3927.9¢-$14.07

Down$113.754.5¢+$39.55

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Invested

$541.51

Value

$402.85

PnL

-$138.65

Record

56%

15897-12510 (28407)

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$313.98

Value

$370.98

PnL

+$57

Record

51%

17654-17053 (34707)

Both legs:

Up$235.9929.5¢-$8

Down$7839¢+$65

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$301.17

Value

$349.3

PnL

+$48.12

Record

54%

10134-8485 (18619)

Both legs:

Up$189.9340.3¢+$43.32

Down$111.2448.4¢+$4.8

oxe78sh4w98

Down

Invested

$425.08

Value

$333.3

PnL

-$91.78

Record

53%

591-526 (1117)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$362.84

Value

$327.65

PnL

+$292.58

Record

55%

14939-12410 (27349)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down

Invested

$419.38

Value

$327.45

PnL

-$91.94

Record

52%

10430-9438 (19868)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$302.5

Value

$313.49

PnL

+$10.99

Record

55%

9839-8152 (17991)

Bossgirl

Down

Invested

$252.44

Value

$258.35

PnL

+$5.91

Record

54%

4760-4006 (8766)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$213.79

Value

$245.42

PnL

+$277.17

Record

54%

13654-11684 (25338)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$246.92

Value

$241.41

PnL

-$5.51

Record

51%

12072-11547 (23619)

13897651ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$243.93

Value

$228.94

PnL

-$14.99

Record

56%

8793-6866 (15659)

Both legs:

Down$132.3754.6¢+$4.57

Up$111.5652.7¢-$19.56

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down

Invested

$246.79

Value

$226.04

PnL

-$20.75

Record

52%

21099-19255 (40354)

bosona

Down

Invested

$96.82

Value

$202.41

PnL

+$105.6

Record

55%

51695-42148 (93843)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$76.3

Value

$176.41

PnL

+$100.1

Record

55%

52350-42819 (95169)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$145.43

Value

$160.45

PnL

+$15.02

Record

66%

101015-52904 (153919)

pspspsps5CTR

Invested

$184.37

Value

$126.24

PnL

-$58.12

Record

45%

40086-48022 (88108)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Down

Invested

$90.26

Value

$122.2

PnL

+$31.93

Record

52%

10543-9889 (20432)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$66.74

Value

$94.34

PnL

+$27.6

Record

56%

60523-47081 (107604)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$83.7

Value

$84.63

PnL

+$1.02

Record

65%

130257-70136 (200393)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

22 of 31 top traders (71%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.