Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET

Resolved Down. 42% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 44%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

$-1.7K

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 36 top traders (42%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down15 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares4,371

Combined PnL+$885.29

Up21 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,988

Combined PnL$-2.6K

Down — 42%Up — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 63¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$34.68	47% 6525-7238 (13763)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 55.9¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$105.27	54% 16566-13992 (30558)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 57.7¢	$627.16	$574.4	+$551.63	55% 14939-12410 (27349)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Upavg 39.1¢	$620.67	—	-$620.67	56% 15897-12510 (28407)
PL ply-pm0CTR	Upavg 46.9¢	$415.82	—	-$415.82	50% 6371-6378 (12749)
10 1000monkeysCTR	Upavg 44¢	$365.63	—	-$365.63	59% 11272-7737 (19009)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 50.6¢	$308.94	$338.28	+$29.33	66% 101015-52904 (153919)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.6¢	$171.09	$338.28	+$167.19
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.6¢	$137.86	—	-$137.86
BL blue.birdsCTR	Upavg 51¢	$321.7	—	-$321.7	51% 12072-11547 (23619)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 61.8¢	$326.72	$302.09	-$24.63	63% 60874-35322 (96196)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Downavg 56.3¢	$278.86	$290.39	+$11.53	52% 21099-19255 (40354)
MO mo-money	Downavg 43.6¢	$114.8	$250.29	+$135.49	55% 52350-42819 (95169)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 53.1¢	$343.27	$246.94	+$150.61	54% 13654-11684 (25338)
machinelearnedCTR	Upavg 49.1¢	$145.18	—	-$145.18	55% 9839-8152 (17991)
KA KARIZMATIKUCTR	Upavg 31.5¢	$196.05	—	-$196.05	52% 707-663 (1370)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 45.7¢	$132.63	$154.43	+$21.81	54% 10134-8485 (18619)
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.6¢	$59.54	$154.43	+$94.89
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.7¢	$73.08	—	-$73.08
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Upavg 30.5¢	$88.19	$97.92	+$9.73	45% 40086-48022 (88108)
└ Down leg	Downavg 17.8¢	$17.45	$97.92	+$80.47
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.5¢	$70.74	—	-$70.74
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100	Upavg 69.6¢	$161.82	$116.59	-$45.23	52% 10430-9438 (19868)
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.8¢	$74.41	$116.59	+$42.17
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.6¢	$87.41	—	-$87.41
PA PapeasyCTR	Upavg 63.1¢	$116.69	—	-$116.69	49% 4171-4276 (8447)
NIULAI4	Downavg 89¢	$107.69	$100	-$7.69	75% 9876-3300 (13176)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Downavg 50¢	$98.1	$152.48	+$54.38	52% 10543-9889 (20432)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 36¢	$64.84	$180.16	+$115.32	56% 77387-59788 (137175)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 64.6¢	$89.95	$101.17	+$11.22	57% 9912-7415 (17327)
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.4¢	$37.83	$101.17	+$63.34
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.6¢	$52.11	—	-$52.11
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 67.2¢	$92.66	—	-$91.32	65% 130257-70136 (200393)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 53.7¢	$87.67	$94.7	+$7.03	56% 8793-6866 (15659)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 63.6¢	$58.85	—	-$58.85	63% 42429-25148 (67577)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$1,133.23

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$34.68

Record

47%

6525-7238 (13763)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$1,114.72

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$105.27

Record

54%

16566-13992 (30558)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$627.16

Value

$574.4

PnL

+$551.63

Record

55%

14939-12410 (27349)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Invested

$620.67

Value

—

PnL

-$620.67

Record

56%

15897-12510 (28407)

ply-pm0CTR

Invested

$415.82

Value

—

PnL

-$415.82

Record

50%

6371-6378 (12749)

1000monkeysCTR

Invested

$365.63

Value

—

PnL

-$365.63

Record

59%

11272-7737 (19009)

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$308.94

Value

$338.28

PnL

+$29.33

Record

66%

101015-52904 (153919)

Both legs:

Down$171.0950.6¢+$167.19

Up$137.8642.6¢-$137.86

blue.birdsCTR

Invested

$321.7

Value

—

PnL

-$321.7

Record

51%

12072-11547 (23619)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$326.72

Value

$302.09

PnL

-$24.63

Record

63%

60874-35322 (96196)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down

Invested

$278.86

Value

$290.39

PnL

+$11.53

Record

52%

21099-19255 (40354)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$114.8

Value

$250.29

PnL

+$135.49

Record

55%

52350-42819 (95169)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$343.27

Value

$246.94

PnL

+$150.61

Record

54%

13654-11684 (25338)

machinelearnedCTR

Invested

$145.18

Value

—

PnL

-$145.18

Record

55%

9839-8152 (17991)

KARIZMATIKUCTR

Invested

$196.05

Value

—

PnL

-$196.05

Record

52%

707-663 (1370)

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$132.63

Value

$154.43

PnL

+$21.81

Record

54%

10134-8485 (18619)

Both legs:

Down$59.5438.6¢+$94.89

Up$73.0845.7¢-$73.08

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Invested

$88.19

Value

$97.92

PnL

+$9.73

Record

45%

40086-48022 (88108)

Both legs:

Down$17.4517.8¢+$80.47

Up$70.7430.5¢-$70.74

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100

Invested

$161.82

Value

$116.59

PnL

-$45.23

Record

52%

10430-9438 (19868)

Both legs:

Down$74.4163.8¢+$42.17

Up$87.4169.6¢-$87.41

PapeasyCTR

Invested

$116.69

Value

—

PnL

-$116.69

Record

49%

4171-4276 (8447)

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$107.69

Value

$100

PnL

-$7.69

Record

75%

9876-3300 (13176)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Down

Invested

$98.1

Value

$152.48

PnL

+$54.38

Record

52%

10543-9889 (20432)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$64.84

Value

$180.16

PnL

+$115.32

Record

56%

77387-59788 (137175)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$89.95

Value

$101.17

PnL

+$11.22

Record

57%

9912-7415 (17327)

Both legs:

Down$37.8337.4¢+$63.34

Up$52.1164.6¢-$52.11

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$92.66

Value

—

PnL

-$91.32

Record

65%

130257-70136 (200393)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$87.67

Value

$94.7

PnL

+$7.03

Record

56%

8793-6866 (15659)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$58.85

Value

—

PnL

-$58.85

Record

63%

42429-25148 (67577)

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 36 top traders (42%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x6efc0efc...c3b4f0

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794006000

Traders in this Market

asdcaxz

Down — $1.1K

-$34.68

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $1.0K

-$105.27

GoodFallen

Down — $574.4

CrouchPredictions

Up — $0

ply-pm0

Up — $0

1000monkeys

Up — $0

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

blue.birds

Up — $0

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $302.09

-$24.63

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down — $290.39

+$11.53

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