Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET

Resolved Down. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 57%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.0K

Combined PnL

$-3.9K

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 28 top traders (57%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares8,029

Combined PnL$-5.1K

Down16 traders

Total Value$10.4K

Total Shares10,411

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Up — 43%Down — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Upavg 52.9¢	$2.1K	—	$-2.1K	59% 2978-2074 (5052)
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Upavg 61¢	$1.8K	—	$-1.8K	63% 60872-35320 (96192)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 76.3¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$160.22	56% 15897-12509 (28406)
10 1000monkeysARB<$100	Downavg 57.7¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$21.12	59% 11247-7714 (18961)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.7¢	$1.0K	$1.8K	+$747.6
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.1¢	$726.48	—	-$726.48
BoneOhio	Downavg 99¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$51.03	74% 105030-37065 (142095)
HC Hcrystallash	Downavg 76.1¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$58.81	30% 12152-28123 (40275)
wowitsamazing	Downavg 42.3¢	$478.65	$1.1K	+$646.27	68% 22481-10823 (33304)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 69.7¢	$596.34	$595.59	-$0.75	51% 12016-11488 (23504)
NIULAI4	Downavg 92.9¢	$570.46	$614	+$43.54	75% 9869-3286 (13155)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 53.6¢	$596.99	$562	-$34.99	67% 102499-50810 (153309)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.6¢	$301.12	$562	+$260.88
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.6¢	$295.87	—	-$295.87
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144CTR	Upavg 47.3¢	$348.5	—	-$348.5	73% 95470-36111 (131581)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 58.6¢	$494.13	$456.31	-$37.83	47% 6472-7172 (13644)
AS asabovesobelow2	Downavg 93.1¢	$432.25	$464.37	+$32.12	67% 1849-929 (2778)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.3¢	$393.2	$399.95	+$6.75	89% 29224-3554 (32778)
RL RLWG	Downavg 51¢	$676.25	$1.3K	+$616.91	50% 8359-8417 (16776)
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Upavg 56.3¢	$964.3	$203.56	-$760.75	56% 77345-59726 (137071)
└ Down leg	Downavg 76.3¢	$155.28	$203.56	+$48.28
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.3¢	$809.03	—	-$809.03
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG	Downavg 45.5¢	$124.62	$273.97	+$149.35	59% 6798-4818 (11616)
Atomforge	Downavg 80.2¢	$188.78	$235.45	+$46.66	64% 4928-2789 (7717)
AS asdaefef	Downavg 84.9¢	$147.3	$128.85	-$18.44	66% 130579-67519 (198098)
ohioismARB<$100	Upavg 47.2¢	$91.87	$50	-$41.87	63% 42391-25095 (67486)
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.2¢	$68.43	—	-$68.43
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.9¢	$23.44	$50	+$26.56
BO Bonereaper<$100	Downavg 93.1¢	$85.64	$91.99	+$6.35	66% 101003-52901 (153904)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100	Upavg 46.1¢	$64.21	$38.77	-$25.44	58% 63234-46452 (109686)
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.1¢	$44.28	—	-$44.28
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.4¢	$19.93	$38.77	+$18.84
PB PBot-5CTR	Upavg 48.3¢	$106.55	—	-$106.55	52% 12296-11333 (23629)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR	Upavg 42.1¢	$104.01	—	-$104.01	56% 60478-47044 (107522)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 41.5¢	$59.58	—	-$59.58	61% 98537-62529 (161066)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Invested

$2,125.65

Value

—

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

59%

2978-2074 (5052)

Polkadot-FrogCTR

Invested

$1,786.73

Value

—

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

63%

60872-35320 (96192)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$1,939.94

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$160.22

Record

56%

15897-12509 (28406)

1000monkeysARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,747.82

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$21.12

Record

59%

11247-7714 (18961)

Both legs:

Down$1,021.3557.7¢+$747.6

Up$726.4842.1¢-$726.48

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$1,664.44

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$51.03

Record

74%

105030-37065 (142095)

Hcrystallash

Down

Invested

$1,315.08

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$58.81

Record

30%

12152-28123 (40275)

wowitsamazing

Down

Invested

$478.65

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$646.27

Record

68%

22481-10823 (33304)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$596.34

Value

$595.59

PnL

-$0.75

Record

51%

12016-11488 (23504)

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$570.46

Value

$614

PnL

+$43.54

Record

75%

9869-3286 (13155)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$596.99

Value

$562

PnL

-$34.99

Record

67%

102499-50810 (153309)

Both legs:

Down$301.1253.6¢+$260.88

Up$295.8753.6¢-$295.87

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144CTR

Invested

$348.5

Value

—

PnL

-$348.5

Record

73%

95470-36111 (131581)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$494.13

Value

$456.31

PnL

-$37.83

Record

47%

6472-7172 (13644)

asabovesobelow2

Down

Invested

$432.25

Value

$464.37

PnL

+$32.12

Record

67%

1849-929 (2778)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$393.2

Value

$399.95

PnL

+$6.75

Record

89%

29224-3554 (32778)

RLWG

Down

Invested

$676.25

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$616.91

Record

50%

8359-8417 (16776)

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Invested

$964.3

Value

$203.56

PnL

-$760.75

Record

56%

77345-59726 (137071)

Both legs:

Down$155.2876.3¢+$48.28

Up$809.0356.3¢-$809.03

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG

Down

Invested

$124.62

Value

$273.97

PnL

+$149.35

Record

59%

6798-4818 (11616)

Atomforge

Down

Invested

$188.78

Value

$235.45

PnL

+$46.66

Record

64%

4928-2789 (7717)

asdaefef

Down

Invested

$147.3

Value

$128.85

PnL

-$18.44

Record

66%

130579-67519 (198098)

ohioismARB<$100

Invested

$91.87

Value

$50

PnL

-$41.87

Record

63%

42391-25095 (67486)

Both legs:

Up$68.4347.2¢-$68.43

Down$23.4446.9¢+$26.56

Bonereaper<$100

Down

Invested

$85.64

Value

$91.99

PnL

+$6.35

Record

66%

101003-52901 (153904)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100

Invested

$64.21

Value

$38.77

PnL

-$25.44

Record

58%

63234-46452 (109686)

Both legs:

Up$44.2846.1¢-$44.28

Down$19.9351.4¢+$18.84

PBot-5CTR

Invested

$106.55

Value

—

PnL

-$106.55

Record

52%

12296-11333 (23629)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR

Invested

$104.01

Value

—

PnL

-$104.01

Record

56%

60478-47044 (107522)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$59.58

Value

—

PnL

-$59.58

Record

61%

98537-62529 (161066)

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 28 top traders (57%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x242704a4...b467fc

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1793997900

Traders in this Market

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Up — $0

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $0

CrouchPredictions

Down — $1.8K

-$160.22

1000monkeys

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$21.12

BoneOhio

Down — $1.6K

-$51.03

Hcrystallash

Down — $1.3K

-$58.81

wowitsamazing

Down — $1.1K

+$646.27

blue.birds

Down — $595.59

-$0.75

NIULAI4

Down — $614

+$43.54

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$34.99

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