Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET
Resolved Down. 42% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
26
Up 42%
2 arb excluded
$7.1K
$-4.2K
Smart Money Signal
11 of 26 top traders (42%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Downavg 76.5¢ | $2.4K | $3.1K | +$729.04 | 59% 2990-2083 (5073) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 97.8¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$37.22 | 89% 29269-3554 (32823) |
HC Hcrystallash | Downavg 59.1¢ | $765 | $841.59 | +$76.59 | 30% 12160-28125 (40285) |
RL RLWGCTR | Upavg 53.7¢ | $4.0K | — | $-4.0K | 50% 8363-8418 (16781) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Upavg 51.8¢ | $444.07 | — | -$444.07 | 63% 60874-35322 (96196) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 47.2¢ | $205.81 | $436.38 | +$230.57 | 56% 15897-12509 (28406) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 69.4¢ | $222.77 | $201.1 | -$21.67 | 47% 6494-7195 (13689) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Upavg 45.8¢ | $194.23 | — | -$194.23 | 55% 52205-42637 (94842) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 59.8¢ | $101.72 | $169.99 | +$68.27 | 55% 51651-42826 (94477) |
10 1000monkeysARB<$100 | Downavg 46.6¢ | $106.77 | $168 | +$61.23 | 59% 11259-7721 (18980) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 46.6¢ | $78.24 | $168 | +$89.76 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 53¢ | $28.53 | — | -$28.53 | |
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR | Upavg 56.2¢ | $104.87 | — | -$104.87 | 53% 590-526 (1116) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 45.8¢ | $64.8 | $90 | +$25.2 | 51% 12042-11506 (23548) |
AS asabovesobelow2CTR | Upavg 53.3¢ | $108.02 | — | -$108.02 | 67% 1850-930 (2780) |
 wowitsamazingCTR | Upavg 46.6¢ | $262.05 | — | -$262.05 | 67% 22484-10826 (33310) |
BO bosonaCTR<$100 | Upavg 52.8¢ | $65.5 | — | -$65.5 | 55% 51681-42136 (93817) |
 AtomforgeCTR | Upavg 45.5¢ | $227.97 | — | -$227.97 | 64% 4931-2790 (7721) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100 | Downavg 46.9¢ | $57.91 | $70.2 | +$12.29 | 58% 63261-46470 (109731) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 46.9¢ | $32.92 | $70.2 | +$37.28 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 59.5¢ | $24.98 | — | -$24.98 | |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 62.1¢ | $26.67 | $42.96 | +$16.29 | 66% 130591-67529 (198120) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 46.2¢ | $44.81 | $91.14 | +$46.32 | 56% 60501-47058 (107559) |
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144<$100 | Downavg 42.7¢ | $30.74 | $72 | +$41.26 | 73% 95470-36111 (131581) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 51.8¢ | $23.84 | $46.04 | +$22.2 | 65% 114545-61579 (176124) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 54.5¢ | $22.9 | — | -$22.9 | 63% 42413-25111 (67524) |
AL almachCTR<$100 | Upavg 27.1¢ | $25.71 | — | -$25.71 | 55% 50160-41768 (91928) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 47.7¢ | $19.1 | $40 | +$20.9 | 61% 46056-29221 (75277) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 64.9¢ | $16.52 | $25.46 | +$8.94 | 61% 98563-62545 (161108) |
Invested
$2,381.41
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$729.04
Record
59%
2990-2083 (5073)
Invested
$1,651.67
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$37.22
Record
89%
29269-3554 (32823)
Invested
$765
Value
$841.59
PnL
+$76.59
Record
30%
12160-28125 (40285)
Invested
$4,048.16
Value
—
PnL
$-4.0K
Record
50%
8363-8418 (16781)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$444.07
Value
—
PnL
-$444.07
Record
63%
60874-35322 (96196)
Invested
$205.81
Value
$436.38
PnL
+$230.57
Record
56%
15897-12509 (28406)
Invested
$222.77
Value
$201.1
PnL
-$21.67
Record
47%
6494-7195 (13689)
Invested
$194.23
Value
—
PnL
-$194.23
Record
55%
52205-42637 (94842)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$101.72
Value
$169.99
PnL
+$68.27
Record
55%
51651-42826 (94477)
Invested
$106.77
Value
$168
PnL
+$61.23
Record
59%
11259-7721 (18980)
Both legs:
Invested
$104.87
Value
—
PnL
-$104.87
Record
53%
590-526 (1116)
Invested
$64.8
Value
$90
PnL
+$25.2
Record
51%
12042-11506 (23548)
Invested
$108.02
Value
—
PnL
-$108.02
Record
67%
1850-930 (2780)
wowitsamazingCTRInvested
$262.05
Value
—
PnL
-$262.05
Record
67%
22484-10826 (33310)
Invested
$65.5
Value
—
PnL
-$65.5
Record
55%
51681-42136 (93817)
AtomforgeCTRInvested
$227.97
Value
—
PnL
-$227.97
Record
64%
4931-2790 (7721)
Invested
$57.91
Value
$70.2
PnL
+$12.29
Record
58%
63261-46470 (109731)
Both legs:
Invested
$26.67
Value
$42.96
PnL
+$16.29
Record
66%
130591-67529 (198120)
Invested
$44.81
Value
$91.14
PnL
+$46.32
Record
56%
60501-47058 (107559)
Invested
$30.74
Value
$72
PnL
+$41.26
Record
73%
95470-36111 (131581)
Invested
$23.84
Value
$46.04
PnL
+$22.2
Record
65%
114545-61579 (176124)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$22.9
Value
—
PnL
-$22.9
Record
63%
42413-25111 (67524)
Invested
$25.71
Value
—
PnL
-$25.71
Record
55%
50160-41768 (91928)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$19.1
Value
$40
PnL
+$20.9
Record
61%
46056-29221 (75277)
Invested
$16.52
Value
$25.46
PnL
+$8.94
Record
61%
98563-62545 (161108)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Down — $3.1K
hoodquant
Down — $1.7K
Hcrystallash
Down — $841.59
RLWG
CTRUp — $0
Polkadot-Frog
CTRUp — $0
CrouchPredictions
Down — $436.38
asdcaxz
Down — $201.1
mo-money
CTRUp — $0
MayorMamdani
Down — $169.99
1000monkeys
ARBArbitrage — excluded