Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET

Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 50%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.2K

Combined PnL

$880.42

Smart Money Signal

12 of 24 top traders (50%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up12 traders

Total Value$10.7K

Total Shares10,728

Combined PnL+$3.7K

Down12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares8,115

Combined PnL$-2.8K

Up — 50%Down — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RL RLWG	Upavg 52¢	$4.2K	$7.7K	+$3.5K	50% 8363-8418 (16781)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Downavg 32.1¢	$2.0K	—	$-2.0K	59% 2990-2083 (5073)
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Downavg 40.3¢	$805.8	—	-$805.8	63% 60874-35322 (96196)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 89.1¢	$702.04	$569.35	-$132.69	56% 15897-12509 (28406)
MO mo-money	Upavg 53.6¢	$498.2	$499.99	+$1.79	55% 52205-42637 (94842)
BO bosona	Upavg 54¢	$504.77	$499.99	-$4.78	55% 51681-42136 (93817)
AL almach	Upavg 50.7¢	$488.33	$499.19	+$10.87	55% 50160-41768 (91928)
HC HcrystallashARB<$100	Upavg 62.1¢	$536.56	$455.32	-$81.24	30% 12160-28125 (40285)
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.5¢	$253.58	—	-$253.58
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.1¢	$282.98	$455.32	+$172.34
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Upavg 62.2¢	$392.75	$425.2	+$32.45	47% 6494-7195 (13689)
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.2¢	$264.36	$425.2	+$160.84
└ Down leg	Downavg 31.3¢	$128.4	—	-$128.4
10 1000monkeysARB<$100	Upavg 60.7¢	$309.91	$278.06	-$31.85	59% 11259-7721 (18980)
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.2¢	$141.09	—	-$141.09
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.7¢	$168.83	$278.06	+$109.23
AS asabovesobelow2	Upavg 56.5¢	$297.4	$515.54	+$218.14	67% 1850-930 (2780)
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Upavg 55.6¢	$153.15	$163.41	+$10.25	51% 12042-11506 (23548)
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.6¢	$62.3	—	-$62.3
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.6¢	$90.86	$163.41	+$72.55
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144CTR	Downavg 42.1¢	$127.85	—	-$127.85	73% 95470-36111 (131581)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100	Upavg 66.8¢	$102.17	$105	+$2.83	56% 60501-47058 (107559)
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.8¢	$70.17	$105	+$34.83
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.7¢	$32	—	-$32
NO notfairplay	Upavg 59.7¢	$102.94	$172.41	+$69.47	33% 222-460 (682)
ohioism	Upavg 59.2¢	$80.77	$114.99	+$34.22	63% 42413-25111 (67524)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100	Upavg 74.2¢	$73.26	$50	-$23.26	58% 63261-46470 (109731)
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.2¢	$36.17	—	-$36.17
└ Up leg	Upavg 74.2¢	$37.09	$50	+$12.91
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99.1¢	$107	$108.01	+$1.01	59% 63885-45013 (108898)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 46.3¢	$89.03	—	-$89.03	55% 51651-42826 (94477)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 42.5¢	$29.75	—	-$29.75	56% 77369-59755 (137124)
NIULAI4<$100	Upavg 96.7¢	$42.54	$44	+$1.46	75% 9870-3291 (13161)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Downavg 50¢	$16.02	—	-$16.02	65% 130212-70100 (200312)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 99¢	$21.54	$14	-$7.54	66% 130591-67529 (198120)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Downavg 58.6¢	$9.96	—	-$9.96	61% 98563-62545 (161108)
PB PBot-5CTR<$100	Downavg 50.1¢	$7.51	—	-$7.51	52% 12307-11342 (23649)

RLWG

Invested

$4,215.8

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$3.5K

Record

50%

8363-8418 (16781)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Down

Invested

$2,044.05

Value

—

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

59%

2990-2083 (5073)

Polkadot-FrogCTR

Down

Invested

$805.8

Value

—

PnL

-$805.8

Record

63%

60874-35322 (96196)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$702.04

Value

$569.35

PnL

-$132.69

Record

56%

15897-12509 (28406)

mo-money

Invested

$498.2

Value

$499.99

PnL

+$1.79

Record

55%

52205-42637 (94842)

bosona

Invested

$504.77

Value

$499.99

PnL

-$4.78

Record

55%

51681-42136 (93817)

almach

Invested

$488.33

Value

$499.19

PnL

+$10.87

Record

55%

50160-41768 (91928)

HcrystallashARB<$100

Invested

$536.56

Value

$455.32

PnL

-$81.24

Record

30%

12160-28125 (40285)

Both legs:

Down$253.5848.5¢-$253.58

Up$282.9862.1¢+$172.34

asdcaxzARB<$100

Invested

$392.75

Value

$425.2

PnL

+$32.45

Record

47%

6494-7195 (13689)

Both legs:

Up$264.3662.2¢+$160.84

Down$128.431.3¢-$128.4

1000monkeysARB<$100

Invested

$309.91

Value

$278.06

PnL

-$31.85

Record

59%

11259-7721 (18980)

Both legs:

Down$141.0945.2¢-$141.09

Up$168.8360.7¢+$109.23

asabovesobelow2

Invested

$297.4

Value

$515.54

PnL

+$218.14

Record

67%

1850-930 (2780)

blue.birdsARB<$100

Invested

$153.15

Value

$163.41

PnL

+$10.25

Record

51%

12042-11506 (23548)

Both legs:

Down$62.335.6¢-$62.3

Up$90.8655.6¢+$72.55

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144CTR

Down

Invested

$127.85

Value

—

PnL

-$127.85

Record

73%

95470-36111 (131581)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100

Invested

$102.17

Value

$105

PnL

+$2.83

Record

56%

60501-47058 (107559)

Both legs:

Up$70.1766.8¢+$34.83

Down$3245.7¢-$32

notfairplay

Invested

$102.94

Value

$172.41

PnL

+$69.47

Record

33%

222-460 (682)

ohioism

Invested

$80.77

Value

$114.99

PnL

+$34.22

Record

63%

42413-25111 (67524)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100

Invested

$73.26

Value

$50

PnL

-$23.26

Record

58%

63261-46470 (109731)

Both legs:

Down$36.1745.2¢-$36.17

Up$37.0974.2¢+$12.91

0x50f7

Invested

$107

Value

$108.01

PnL

+$1.01

Record

59%

63885-45013 (108898)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$89.03

Value

—

PnL

-$89.03

Record

55%

51651-42826 (94477)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$29.75

Value

—

PnL

-$29.75

Record

56%

77369-59755 (137124)

NIULAI4<$100

Invested

$42.54

Value

$44

PnL

+$1.46

Record

75%

9870-3291 (13161)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$16.02

Value

—

PnL

-$16.02

Record

65%

130212-70100 (200312)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$21.54

Value

$14

PnL

-$7.54

Record

66%

130591-67529 (198120)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$9.96

Value

—

PnL

-$9.96

Record

61%

98563-62545 (161108)

PBot-5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$7.51

Value

—

PnL

-$7.51

Record

52%

12307-11342 (23649)

Smart Money Signal

12 of 24 top traders (50%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xa11e86c8...900376

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1793998800

Traders in this Market

RLWG

Up — $7.7K

+$3.5K

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down — $0

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $0

CrouchPredictions

Up — $569.35

-$132.69

mo-money

Up — $499.99

+$1.79

bosona

Up — $499.99

-$4.78

almach

Up — $499.19

Hcrystallash

Arbitrage — excluded

asdcaxz

Arbitrage — excluded

1000monkeys

Arbitrage — excluded