Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET
Resolved Up. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
24
Up 83%
1 arb excluded
$6.6K
-$280.16
Smart Money Signal
20 of 24 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$19.98 | 89% 29269-3554 (32823) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Upavg 86.5¢ | $1.5K | $1.1K | -$463.58 | 59% 2990-2083 (5073) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 76.9¢ | $940.85 | $889.19 | -$51.66 | 56% 15897-12509 (28406) |
HC Hcrystallash | Upavg 52.2¢ | $618.09 | $777.65 | +$159.56 | 30% 12160-28125 (40285) |
10 1000monkeys | Upavg 66.3¢ | $689.66 | $655.45 | -$34.22 | 59% 11259-7721 (18980) |
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 98.9¢ | $213.7 | $216.02 | +$2.32 | 59% 63885-45013 (108898) |
AS asdcaxzARB<$100 | Upavg 65.1¢ | $214.02 | $230.43 | +$16.41 | 47% 6494-7195 (13689) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 65.1¢ | $150.04 | $230.43 | +$80.39 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 40.5¢ | $63.98 | — | -$63.98 | |
BO bosona | Upavg 96¢ | $165.6 | $172.5 | +$6.9 | 55% 51681-42136 (93817) |
 NIULAI4 | Upavg 97.6¢ | $138.59 | $142 | +$3.41 | 75% 9870-3291 (13161) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Upavg 78.8¢ | $87.27 | $110.76 | +$23.49 | 61% 46056-29221 (75277) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 75.4¢ | $88.75 | $86.65 | -$2.1 | 56% 60501-47058 (107559) |
 wowitsamazingCTR | Downavg 1.6¢ | $147.61 | — | -$89.62 | 67% 22484-10826 (33310) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Upavg 54.4¢ | $29.5 | $35 | +$5.5 | 50% 8363-8418 (16781) |
AS asabovesobelow2<$100 | Upavg 46.2¢ | $34.26 | $74.11 | +$39.84 | 67% 1850-930 (2780) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 88.4¢ | $26.48 | $29.96 | +$3.48 | 66% 130591-67529 (198120) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 93.5¢ | $34.56 | $24.16 | -$10.4 | 61% 98563-62545 (161108) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Upavg 71¢ | $24.85 | $35 | +$10.15 | 56% 77369-59755 (137124) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Upavg 62¢ | $18.6 | $30 | +$11.4 | 51% 12042-11506 (23548) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 45¢ | $15.87 | — | -$15.87 | 63% 42413-25111 (67524) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 40.2¢ | $10.42 | $25.95 | +$15.53 | 65% 130212-70100 (200312) |
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144CTR<$100 | Downavg 47.7¢ | $7.16 | — | -$7.16 | 73% 95470-36111 (131581) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Upavg 87.8¢ | $8.78 | $10 | +$1.22 | 52% 12307-11342 (23649) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Upavg 98¢ | $4.9 | $5 | +$0.1 | 48% 10586-11258 (21844) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 46.5¢ | $4.65 | — | -$4.65 | 55% 51651-42826 (94477) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Upavg 44.6¢ | $48.96 | — | +$96.24 | 64% 4931-2790 (7721) |
Invested
$2,004.01
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$19.98
Record
89%
29269-3554 (32823)
Invested
$1,523.58
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$463.58
Record
59%
2990-2083 (5073)
Invested
$940.85
Value
$889.19
PnL
-$51.66
Record
56%
15897-12509 (28406)
Invested
$618.09
Value
$777.65
PnL
+$159.56
Record
30%
12160-28125 (40285)
Invested
$689.66
Value
$655.45
PnL
-$34.22
Record
59%
11259-7721 (18980)
Invested
$213.7
Value
$216.02
PnL
+$2.32
Record
59%
63885-45013 (108898)
Invested
$214.02
Value
$230.43
PnL
+$16.41
Record
47%
6494-7195 (13689)
Both legs:
Invested
$165.6
Value
$172.5
PnL
+$6.9
Record
55%
51681-42136 (93817)
NIULAI4Invested
$138.59
Value
$142
PnL
+$3.41
Record
75%
9870-3291 (13161)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$87.27
Value
$110.76
PnL
+$23.49
Record
61%
46056-29221 (75277)
Invested
$88.75
Value
$86.65
PnL
-$2.1
Record
56%
60501-47058 (107559)
wowitsamazingCTRInvested
$147.61
Value
—
PnL
-$89.62
Record
67%
22484-10826 (33310)
Invested
$29.5
Value
$35
PnL
+$5.5
Record
50%
8363-8418 (16781)
Invested
$34.26
Value
$74.11
PnL
+$39.84
Record
67%
1850-930 (2780)
Invested
$26.48
Value
$29.96
PnL
+$3.48
Record
66%
130591-67529 (198120)
Invested
$34.56
Value
$24.16
PnL
-$10.4
Record
61%
98563-62545 (161108)
Invested
$24.85
Value
$35
PnL
+$10.15
Record
56%
77369-59755 (137124)
Invested
$18.6
Value
$30
PnL
+$11.4
Record
51%
12042-11506 (23548)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$15.87
Value
—
PnL
-$15.87
Record
63%
42413-25111 (67524)
Invested
$10.42
Value
$25.95
PnL
+$15.53
Record
65%
130212-70100 (200312)
Invested
$7.16
Value
—
PnL
-$7.16
Record
73%
95470-36111 (131581)
Invested
$8.78
Value
$10
PnL
+$1.22
Record
52%
12307-11342 (23649)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$4.9
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.1
Record
48%
10586-11258 (21844)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$4.65
Value
—
PnL
-$4.65
Record
55%
51651-42826 (94477)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$48.96
Value
—
PnL
+$96.24
Record
64%
4931-2790 (7721)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Up — $2.0K
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Up — $1.1K
CrouchPredictions
Up — $889.19
Hcrystallash
Up — $777.65
1000monkeys
Up — $655.45
0x50f7
Up — $216.02
asdcaxz
ARBArbitrage — excluded
bosona
Up — $172.5
NIULAI4
Up — $142
G-Penis-Monster
Up — $110.76