Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET

Resolved Down. 66% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 65%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$27.9K

Combined PnL

$1.9K

Smart Money Signal

Down

25 of 38 top traders (66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up13 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares14,871

Combined PnL$-12.2K

Down25 traders

Total Value$27.4K

Total Shares27,409

Combined PnL+$14.0K

Up — 34%Down — 66%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Upavg 70.7¢	$3.5K	—	$-3.5K	59% 2978-2074 (5052)
BoneOhio	Downavg 94.2¢	$3.5K	$3.6K	+$165.7	74% 105030-37065 (142095)
wowitsamazing	Downavg 21.4¢	$816.73	$3.4K	+$6.3K	68% 22481-10823 (33304)
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Upavg 75.6¢	$2.8K	—	$-2.7K	63% 60872-35320 (96192)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 68.9¢	$1.9K	—	$-1.9K	56% 77345-59726 (137071)
HC Hcrystallash	Downavg 55.3¢	$2.5K	$2.3K	-$165.87	30% 12152-28123 (40275)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$20.49	89% 29224-3554 (32778)
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489	Downavg 59.7¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$8.05	75% 260-87 (347)
Atomforge	Downavg 37.2¢	$1.2K	$1.6K	+$2.3K	64% 4928-2789 (7717)
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR	Upavg 32.1¢	$543.97	—	-$543.97	53% 590-526 (1116)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 70.9¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$44.46	56% 15897-12509 (28406)
BO bosona	Downavg 32.8¢	$470.17	$1.1K	+$633.89	55% 51582-41991 (93573)
10 1000monkeys	Downavg 55.8¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$51.51	59% 11247-7714 (18961)
AS asabovesobelow2CTR	Upavg 74.5¢	$1.3K	—	$-1.3K	67% 1849-929 (2778)
AL almach	Downavg 32.4¢	$406.19	$978.51	+$572.32	55% 50158-41764 (91922)
RL RLWG	Downavg 36¢	$604.22	$1.3K	+$730.75	50% 8359-8417 (16776)
AS asdcaxzCTR	Upavg 68.7¢	$937.64	—	-$937.64	47% 6472-7172 (13644)
MO mo-money	Downavg 32.5¢	$432.63	$982.2	+$549.57	55% 52205-42636 (94841)
AD adururu	Downavg 29.9¢	$1.1K	$3.5K	+$2.5K	53% 407-357 (764)
NIULAI4	Downavg 86.5¢	$1.1K	$697	-$427.94	75% 9869-3286 (13155)
MayorMamdani	Downavg 68¢	$672.11	$584.17	-$87.94	55% 51621-42810 (94431)
BL blue.birdsCTR	Upavg 46.5¢	$498.87	—	-$498.87	51% 12016-11488 (23504)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 66.5¢	$462.38	$469	+$6.62	67% 102499-50810 (153309)
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.5¢	$323.49	—	-$323.49
└ Down leg	Downavg 29.6¢	$138.89	$469	+$330.11
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 89.1¢	$231.66	$232	+$0.34	66% 101003-52901 (153904)
PB PBot-5	Downavg 73.8¢	$177.79	$160	-$17.79	52% 12296-11333 (23629)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Invested

$3,536.09

Value

—

PnL

$-3.5K

Record

59%

2978-2074 (5052)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$3,481.52

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$165.7

Record

74%

105030-37065 (142095)

wowitsamazing

Down

Invested

$816.73

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$6.3K

Record

68%

22481-10823 (33304)

Polkadot-FrogCTR

Invested

$2,757.2

Value

—

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

63%

60872-35320 (96192)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$1,944.01

Value

—

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

56%

77345-59726 (137071)

Hcrystallash

Down

Invested

$2,472.57

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$165.87

Record

30%

12152-28123 (40275)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,981.56

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$20.49

Record

89%

29224-3554 (32778)

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down

Invested

$1,931.95

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$8.05

Record

75%

260-87 (347)

Atomforge

Down

Invested

$1,188.45

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

64%

4928-2789 (7717)

oxe78sh4w98CTR

Invested

$543.97

Value

—

PnL

-$543.97

Record

53%

590-526 (1116)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$1,231.73

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$44.46

Record

56%

15897-12509 (28406)

bosona

Down

Invested

$470.17

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$633.89

Record

55%

51582-41991 (93573)

1000monkeys

Down

Invested

$1,094.8

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$51.51

Record

59%

11247-7714 (18961)

asabovesobelow2CTR

Invested

$1,338.12

Value

—

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

67%

1849-929 (2778)

almach

Down

Invested

$406.19

Value

$978.51

PnL

+$572.32

Record

55%

50158-41764 (91922)

RLWG

Down

Invested

$604.22

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$730.75

Record

50%

8359-8417 (16776)

asdcaxzCTR

Invested

$937.64

Value

—

PnL

-$937.64

Record

47%

6472-7172 (13644)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$432.63

Value

$982.2

PnL

+$549.57

Record

55%

52205-42636 (94841)

adururu

Down

Invested

$1,055.53

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

53%

407-357 (764)

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$1,124.94

Value

$697

PnL

-$427.94

Record

75%

9869-3286 (13155)

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$672.11

Value

$584.17

PnL

-$87.94

Record

55%

51621-42810 (94431)

blue.birdsCTR

Invested

$498.87

Value

—

PnL

-$498.87

Record

51%

12016-11488 (23504)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$462.38

Value

$469

PnL

+$6.62

Record

67%

102499-50810 (153309)

Both legs:

Up$323.4966.5¢-$323.49

Down$138.8929.6¢+$330.11

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$231.66

Value

$232

PnL

+$0.34

Record

66%

101003-52901 (153904)

PBot-5

Down

Invested

$177.79

Value

$160

PnL

-$17.79

Record

52%

12296-11333 (23629)

Smart Money Signal

Down

25 of 38 top traders (66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x310634bf...f22d30

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1793995200

Traders in this Market

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

CTR

Up — $0

$-3.5K

BoneOhio

Down — $3.6K

+$165.7

wowitsamazing

Down — $3.4K

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $0

uninformedfloww

Up — $0

Hcrystallash

Down — $2.3K

-$165.87

hoodquant

Down — $2.0K

+$20.49

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down — $1.9K

+$8.05

Atomforge

Down — $1.6K

oxe78sh4w98

Up — $0