Known as ElonSimp since Nov 11 2026 · Previously known as: ElonSimp (Nov 9 – Nov 10 2026)
Consensus PnL $1.5K · win rate 100% (2–0, n=2) · PM monthly #974 · holds 5 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$1.5K
Record
2W / 0L
Win Rate
100.0%
of 2 settled
Batting Avg
52.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#96
Source
PM monthly #974
Record (90 d)
2/2 · 100%
Trades
4,865
Markets
24
Volume
$30.1K
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Top consensus positions
5 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 5 on the consensus side (60%)- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from November 9 to November 11, 2026?No $451 · now 67¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (92% of 13)
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 9 to November 11, 2026?No $181 · now 43¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (92% of 13)
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from November 9 to November 11, 2026?Yes $17 · now 1¢ · in at 10¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 9 to November 11, 2026?Yes $12 · now 8¢ · in at 11¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from November 9 to November 11, 2026?No $4 · now 100¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (100% of 11)
Specialties
12 settled consensus markets · held side won 83% at an average entry of 73¢- Mentions
+10 pts
side won 83% of 12 · avg entry 73¢
ROI +2%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 25%(won 33% of 3)
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 0%
- 70¢ and up: 75%(won 100% of 9)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.