Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 9 to November 11, 2026?

17 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold No (94%) · No at 98¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 11

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 94%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$303.57

Smart Money Entry

86.2¢ → 98.4¢

+14% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 18 top traders (94%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No17 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares2,867

Combined PnL+$277.94

Yes1 trader

Total Value$8.43

Total Shares213

Combined PnL+$25.63

No — 94%Yes — 6%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 46%

Freshness

Mature

38h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

94% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 8

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 94% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 96.5¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$10.74	53% 5633-5071 (10704)
Lucerys	Noavg 76.5¢	$442.68	$565.3	+$122.62	37% 3176-5375 (8551)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 92.7¢	$265.43	$279.71	+$14.29	30% 2678-6206 (8884)
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 74.6¢	$210.24	$275.58	+$65.34	53% 1602-1414 (3016)
ME merod	Noavg 98.2¢	$124.53	$124.45	-$0.08	80% 48-12 (60)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 89.9¢	$155.51	$101.3	-$1.72	54% 533-457 (990)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$73.12	$73.76	+$0.64	79% 346-94 (440)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 62¢	$43.57	$68.58	+$25.01	51% 4631-4518 (9149)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 81¢	$51.96	$55.24	+$3.28	80% 548-133 (681)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 75¢	$39.65	$51.18	+$11.54	50% 85-84 (169)
WA WarriorH<$100	Noavg 61¢	$50.5	$50.37	-$0.13	4% 1-26 (27)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 60¢	$40.99	$40.2	-$0.79	41% 3107-4462 (7569)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 61.1¢	$18.32	$29.32	+$11	26% 858-2483 (3341)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 62¢	$18.6	$29.32	+$10.72	25% 96-283 (379)
AL alex20011<$100	Noavg 94¢	$25.57	$26.59	+$1.02	44% 1081-1380 (2461)
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 85¢	$9.25	$10.63	+$1.39	28% 522-1370 (1892)
QU quiet-ferretCTR	Yesavg 4.3¢	$653.06	$8.43	+$25.63	8% 9-104 (113)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 60¢	$4.91	$8	+$3.09	24% 75-243 (318)

cigarettes

Invested

$1,017.37

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$10.74

Record

53%

5633-5071 (10704)

Lucerys

Invested

$442.68

Value

$565.3

PnL

+$122.62

Record

37%

3176-5375 (8551)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$265.43

Value

$279.71

PnL

+$14.29

Record

30%

2678-6206 (8884)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$210.24

Value

$275.58

PnL

+$65.34

Record

53%

1602-1414 (3016)

merod

Invested

$124.53

Value

$124.45

PnL

-$0.08

Record

80%

48-12 (60)

ghorrock

Invested

$155.51

Value

$101.3

PnL

-$1.72

Record

54%

533-457 (990)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$73.12

Value

$73.76

PnL

+$0.64

Record

79%

346-94 (440)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$43.57

Value

$68.58

PnL

+$25.01

Record

51%

4631-4518 (9149)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$51.96

Value

$55.24

PnL

+$3.28

Record

80%

548-133 (681)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$39.65

Value

$51.18

PnL

+$11.54

Record

50%

85-84 (169)

WarriorH<$100

Invested

$50.5

Value

$50.37

PnL

-$0.13

Record

1-26 (27)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$40.99

Value

$40.2

PnL

-$0.79

Record

41%

3107-4462 (7569)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$18.32

Value

$29.32

PnL

+$11

Record

26%

858-2483 (3341)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$18.6

Value

$29.32

PnL

+$10.72

Record

25%

96-283 (379)

alex20011<$100

Invested

$25.57

Value

$26.59

PnL

+$1.02

Record

44%

1081-1380 (2461)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$9.25

Value

$10.63

PnL

+$1.39

Record

28%

522-1370 (1892)

quiet-ferretCTR

Yes

Invested

$653.06

Value

$8.43

PnL

+$25.63

Record

9-104 (113)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$4.91

Value

PnL

+$3.09

Record

24%

75-243 (318)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 18 top traders (94%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 46%

Freshness

Mature

38h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

94% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 8

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 94% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.4%

98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.