Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (63%). 13 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from November 9 to November 11, 2026?

13 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (87%) · No at 37¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 11

Yes63¢No37¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 87%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$636.17

Smart Money Entry

63.5¢ → 36.6¢

-42% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 37%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 15 top traders (87%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes63%

No37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares3,091

Combined PnL-$641.09

Yes2 traders

Total Value$146.95

Total Shares245

Combined PnL+$4.92

No — 87%Yes — 13%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 9

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettesARB<$100	Noavg 42.2¢	$659.67	$622.59	-$25.28	53% 5637-5072 (10709)
└ No leg	Noavg 42.2¢	$459.86	$398.43	-$61.43
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 53.5¢	$189.12	$224.16	+$36.15
LucerysCTR	Noavg 63.3¢	$746.96	$468.43	-$278.53	37% 3176-5375 (8551)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Noavg 64.2¢	$985.4	$209.42	-$46.55	66% 4102-2128 (6230)
QW qwen300.fundCTR	Noavg 45.4¢	$202.55	$177.18	-$25.37	30% 2683-6207 (8890)
Rex416	Yesavg 64.7¢	$153.69	$142.06	-$11.63	— 6-0 (6)
QU quiet-ferretARB<$100	Noavg 86.8¢	$4.3K	$137.31	-$348.68	8% 9-104 (113)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 29.3¢	$46.9	$101.49	+$54.59
└ No leg	Noavg 86.8¢	$84.86	$35.82	-$403.28
BI BiggggggggCTR	Noavg 85.1¢	$239.91	$111.95	-$127.96	53% 1602-1414 (3016)
balthazarCTR	Noavg 73.1¢	$192.73	$106.47	-$86.26	51% 4634-4520 (9154)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 81.3¢	$105.06	$106.13	+$1.07	41% 3108-4463 (7571)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 16.3¢	$17.27	$63.26	+$46
└ No leg	Noavg 81.3¢	$87.8	$42.87	-$44.93
ME merodCTR<$100	Noavg 42¢	$53.25	$50.36	-$2.89	80% 48-12 (60)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 42.9¢	$28.12	$26.02	-$2.1	79% 348-95 (443)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Noavg 84.5¢	$49.04	$25.67	-$23.37	49% 86-88 (174)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Noavg 93.2¢	$27.96	$11.91	-$16.05	24% 75-243 (318)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$29.36	$11.91	-$17.45	15% 65-373 (438)
AL alex20011CTR<$100	Noavg 59.3¢	$16.13	$10.8	-$5.33	44% 1081-1380 (2461)
GH ghorrock	Yesavg 26.3¢	$451.55	$4.89	+$16.54	54% 539-462 (1001)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Noavg 80.7¢	$8.77	$4.32	-$4.46	28% 522-1370 (1892)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$8.02	$3.25	-$4.77	16% 63-330 (393)

cigarettesARB<$100

Invested

$659.67

Value

$622.59

PnL

-$25.28

Record

53%

5637-5072 (10709)

Both legs:

No$459.8642.2¢-$61.43

Yes$189.1253.5¢+$36.15

LucerysCTR

Invested

$746.96

Value

$468.43

PnL

-$278.53

Record

37%

3176-5375 (8551)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Invested

$985.4

Value

$209.42

PnL

-$46.55

Record

66%

4102-2128 (6230)

qwen300.fundCTR

Invested

$202.55

Value

$177.18

PnL

-$25.37

Record

30%

2683-6207 (8890)

Rex416

Yes

Invested

$153.69

Value

$142.06

PnL

-$11.63

Record

—

6-0 (6)

quiet-ferretARB<$100

Invested

$4,304.88

Value

$137.31

PnL

-$348.68

Record

9-104 (113)

Both legs:

Yes$46.929.3¢+$54.59

No$84.8686.8¢-$403.28

BiggggggggCTR

Invested

$239.91

Value

$111.95

PnL

-$127.96

Record

53%

1602-1414 (3016)

balthazarCTR

Invested

$192.73

Value

$106.47

PnL

-$86.26

Record

51%

4634-4520 (9154)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$105.06

Value

$106.13

PnL

+$1.07

Record

41%

3108-4463 (7571)

Both legs:

Yes$17.2716.3¢+$46

No$87.881.3¢-$44.93

merodCTR<$100

Invested

$53.25

Value

$50.36

PnL

-$2.89

Record

80%

48-12 (60)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$28.12

Value

$26.02

PnL

-$2.1

Record

79%

348-95 (443)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Invested

$49.04

Value

$25.67

PnL

-$23.37

Record

49%

86-88 (174)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Invested

$27.96

Value

$11.91

PnL

-$16.05

Record

24%

75-243 (318)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$29.36

Value

$11.91

PnL

-$17.45

Record

15%

65-373 (438)

alex20011CTR<$100

Invested

$16.13

Value

$10.8

PnL

-$5.33

Record

44%

1081-1380 (2461)

ghorrock

Yes

Invested

$451.55

Value

$4.89

PnL

+$16.54

Record

54%

539-462 (1001)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Invested

$8.77

Value

$4.32

PnL

-$4.46

Record

28%

522-1370 (1892)

god83743894CTR<$100

Invested

$8.02

Value

$3.25

PnL

-$4.77

Record

16%

63-330 (393)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 37%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 15 top traders (87%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 9

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance38.8%

36.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$157.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

257.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.