Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from November 9 to November 11, 2026?

11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 11

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$13.4

Smart Money Entry

98.8¢ → 100¢

+1% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 11 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,267

Combined PnL+$13.4

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Mature

40h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys	Noavg 99.4¢	$614.8	$618.2	+$3.4	37% 3197-5378 (8575)
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 99.8¢	$281.44	$281.86	+$0.42	53% 1609-1415 (3024)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 96¢	$126.43	$100.82	+$4.8	54% 553-469 (1022)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 96.6¢	$86.95	$89.96	+$3.01	51% 4649-4526 (9175)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 97.6¢	$54.24	$55.55	+$1.31	30% 2706-6209 (8915)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$52.41	$52.49	+$0.08	49% 87-90 (177)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 95.7¢	$28.71	$29.99	+$1.28	40% 1455-2158 (3613)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$13.81	$13.95	+$0.15	53% 5656-5081 (10737)
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$10.87	$10.87	+$0.01	28% 522-1370 (1892)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 95.7¢	$7.84	$8.19	+$0.35	27% 936-2514 (3450)
QU quiet-ferret<$100	Noavg 95.2¢	$73.08	$4	-$1.4	8% 9-104 (113)

Lucerys

Invested

$614.8

Value

$618.2

PnL

+$3.4

Record

37%

3197-5378 (8575)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$281.44

Value

$281.86

PnL

+$0.42

Record

53%

1609-1415 (3024)

ghorrock

Invested

$126.43

Value

$100.82

PnL

+$4.8

Record

54%

553-469 (1022)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$86.95

Value

$89.96

PnL

+$3.01

Record

51%

4649-4526 (9175)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$54.24

Value

$55.55

PnL

+$1.31

Record

30%

2706-6209 (8915)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$52.41

Value

$52.49

PnL

+$0.08

Record

49%

87-90 (177)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$28.71

Value

$29.99

PnL

+$1.28

Record

40%

1455-2158 (3613)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$13.81

Value

$13.95

PnL

+$0.15

Record

53%

5656-5081 (10737)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$10.87

Value

$10.87

PnL

+$0.01

Record

28%

522-1370 (1892)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$7.84

Value

$8.19

PnL

+$0.35

Record

27%

936-2514 (3450)

quiet-ferret<$100

Invested

$73.08

Value

PnL

-$1.4

Record

9-104 (113)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 11 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Mature

40h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.