Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 9 to November 11, 2026?

14 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 65¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 11

Yes35¢No65¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 88%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

$175.29

Smart Money Entry

56.1¢ → 65¢

+16% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 65%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 16 top traders (88%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes35%

No65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares3,953

Combined PnL+$190.37

Yes2 traders

Total Value$96.85

Total Shares197

Combined PnL-$15.08

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Mature

42h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 8

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys	Noavg 53.7¢	$828.04	$939.37	+$111.33	37% 3176-5375 (8551)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 60.8¢	$757.46	$787.91	+$33.96	53% 5637-5072 (10709)
PO PoligarchARB<$100	Noavg 61¢	$478.98	$464.28	-$14.7	80% 550-134 (684)
└ No leg	Noavg 61¢	$283.73	$274.33	-$9.4
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 42.1¢	$195.25	$189.95	-$5.3
WA WarriorHARB<$100	Noavg 83.4¢	$372.79	$330.17	+$3.02	4% 1-26 (27)
└ No leg	Noavg 83.4¢	$269.95	$197.09	-$73.06
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 17.6¢	$56.99	$133.07	+$76.08
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 60.5¢	$283.04	$284.99	+$1.95	30% 2683-6207 (8890)
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 43.4¢	$122.28	$171.66	+$49.38	53% 1602-1414 (3016)
balthazar	Noavg 55.3¢	$107.37	$114.31	+$6.95	51% 4634-4520 (9154)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 58¢	$73.58	$74.85	+$1.27	80% 48-12 (60)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Yesavg 42.5¢	$256.1	$61.92	-$10.99	66% 4102-2128 (6230)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 64.2¢	$55.29	$52.91	-$2.39	41% 3108-4463 (7571)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 58.5¢	$43.84	$44.25	+$0.41	79% 348-95 (443)
GH ghorrockCTR	Yesavg 37.2¢	$286.38	$34.93	-$4.09	54% 539-462 (1001)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 40¢	$23.81	$34.27	+$10.46	49% 86-88 (174)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 81¢	$24.3	$18.26	-$6.04	40% 1453-2158 (3611)
AL alex20011<$100	Noavg 46¢	$12.51	$16.56	+$4.05	44% 1081-1380 (2461)
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 35¢	$3.81	$6.62	+$2.81	28% 522-1370 (1892)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 83¢	$6.8	$4.99	-$1.81	25% 96-283 (379)
QU quiet-ferret	Noavg 67.4¢	$1.3K	$2	-$21.96	8% 9-104 (113)

Lucerys

Invested

$828.04

Value

$939.37

PnL

+$111.33

Record

37%

3176-5375 (8551)

cigarettes

Invested

$757.46

Value

$787.91

PnL

+$33.96

Record

53%

5637-5072 (10709)

PoligarchARB<$100

Invested

$478.98

Value

$464.28

PnL

-$14.7

Record

80%

550-134 (684)

Both legs:

No$283.7361¢-$9.4

Yes$195.2542.1¢-$5.3

WarriorHARB<$100

Invested

$372.79

Value

$330.17

PnL

+$3.02

Record

1-26 (27)

Both legs:

No$269.9583.4¢-$73.06

Yes$56.9917.6¢+$76.08

qwen300.fund

Invested

$283.04

Value

$284.99

PnL

+$1.95

Record

30%

2683-6207 (8890)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$122.28

Value

$171.66

PnL

+$49.38

Record

53%

1602-1414 (3016)

balthazar

Invested

$107.37

Value

$114.31

PnL

+$6.95

Record

51%

4634-4520 (9154)

merod<$100

Invested

$73.58

Value

$74.85

PnL

+$1.27

Record

80%

48-12 (60)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Yes

Invested

$256.1

Value

$61.92

PnL

-$10.99

Record

66%

4102-2128 (6230)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$55.29

Value

$52.91

PnL

-$2.39

Record

41%

3108-4463 (7571)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$43.84

Value

$44.25

PnL

+$0.41

Record

79%

348-95 (443)

ghorrockCTR

Yes

Invested

$286.38

Value

$34.93

PnL

-$4.09

Record

54%

539-462 (1001)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$23.81

Value

$34.27

PnL

+$10.46

Record

49%

86-88 (174)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$24.3

Value

$18.26

PnL

-$6.04

Record

40%

1453-2158 (3611)

alex20011<$100

Invested

$12.51

Value

$16.56

PnL

+$4.05

Record

44%

1081-1380 (2461)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$3.81

Value

$6.62

PnL

+$2.81

Record

28%

522-1370 (1892)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$6.8

Value

$4.99

PnL

-$1.81

Record

25%

96-283 (379)

quiet-ferret

Invested

$1,292.1

Value

PnL

-$21.96

Record

9-104 (113)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 65%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 16 top traders (88%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Mature

42h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 8

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.1%

65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$48.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

149.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.