Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from November 9 to November 11, 2026?

17 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold No (94%) · No at 100¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 11

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 94%

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

$129.02

Smart Money Entry

96.3¢ → 99.9¢

+4% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 18 top traders (94%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No17 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares3,612

Combined PnL+$129.02

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.11

Total Shares1,111

Combined PnL-$0

No — 94%Yes — 6%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Mature

41h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

94% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (17 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 10

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 100% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys	Noavg 97.2¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$37.61	37% 3197-5378 (8575)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 98.5¢	$684.97	$694.11	+$9.14	30% 2706-6209 (8915)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 98.9¢	$438.49	$441.48	+$2.99	53% 5657-5082 (10739)
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 96.3¢	$271.62	$281.72	+$10.1	53% 1609-1415 (3024)
DO donthackme	Noavg 99.9¢	$218.61	$218.5	-$0.11	77% 34-10 (44)
ME merod	Noavg 99.9¢	$126.73	$126.73	+$0	80% 48-12 (60)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$83.66	$83.92	+$0.26	79% 375-99 (474)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 72¢	$50.4	$69.93	+$19.53	51% 4649-4526 (9175)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 80.8¢	$60.09	$69.39	+$9.3	41% 3116-4481 (7597)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 97¢	$50.98	$52.48	+$1.5	49% 87-90 (177)
WA WarriorH<$100	Noavg 77¢	$50.67	$49.95	+$11.19	3% 1-31 (32)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 91¢	$152.14	$43.6	+$9.17	54% 553-471 (1024)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 74¢	$22.2	$29.97	+$7.77	17% 66-330 (396)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 73¢	$21.9	$29.97	+$8.07	24% 77-243 (320)
AL alex20011<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$27.01	$27.17	+$0.16	44% 1081-1380 (2461)
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$10.64	$10.87	+$0.23	28% 522-1370 (1892)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 74¢	$6.06	$8.18	+$2.12	17% 76-374 (450)
LinaBell🦊CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$1.11	$1.11	-$0	— 0-9 (9)

Lucerys

Invested

$1,332.48

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$37.61

Record

37%

3197-5378 (8575)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$684.97

Value

$694.11

PnL

+$9.14

Record

30%

2706-6209 (8915)

cigarettes

Invested

$438.49

Value

$441.48

PnL

+$2.99

Record

53%

5657-5082 (10739)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$271.62

Value

$281.72

PnL

+$10.1

Record

53%

1609-1415 (3024)

donthackme

Invested

$218.61

Value

$218.5

PnL

-$0.11

Record

77%

34-10 (44)

merod

Invested

$126.73

Value

$126.73

PnL

+$0

Record

80%

48-12 (60)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$83.66

Value

$83.92

PnL

+$0.26

Record

79%

375-99 (474)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$50.4

Value

$69.93

PnL

+$19.53

Record

51%

4649-4526 (9175)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$60.09

Value

$69.39

PnL

+$9.3

Record

41%

3116-4481 (7597)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$50.98

Value

$52.48

PnL

+$1.5

Record

49%

87-90 (177)

WarriorH<$100

Invested

$50.67

Value

$49.95

PnL

+$11.19

Record

1-31 (32)

ghorrock

Invested

$152.14

Value

$43.6

PnL

+$9.17

Record

54%

553-471 (1024)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$22.2

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$7.77

Record

17%

66-330 (396)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$21.9

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$8.07

Record

24%

77-243 (320)

alex20011<$100

Invested

$27.01

Value

$27.17

PnL

+$0.16

Record

44%

1081-1380 (2461)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$10.64

Value

$10.87

PnL

+$0.23

Record

28%

522-1370 (1892)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$6.06

Value

$8.18

PnL

+$2.12

Record

17%

76-374 (450)

LinaBell🦊CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.11

Value

$1.11

PnL

-$0

Record

—

0-9 (9)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 18 top traders (94%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Mature

41h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

94% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (17 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 10

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 100% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.