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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
ferrariChampions2026primmRN1waierma
Record (consensus markets)43% (11774–15353, n=27127)47% (1430–1597, n=3027)48% (19652–21409, n=41061)45% (107–132, n=239)
Consensus PnL-$9.5M$3.7M$14.9M$30K
Tracked aswas PM monthly #87PM monthly #41PM monthly #35 + pinnedPM monthly #784
Sides with the consensus73% (11 of 15 open)no open consensus position61% (17 of 28 open)no open consensus position
Strongest topics
Weakest topic————
Settled positions, side won100% of 5556 at avg 60¢, ROI +8%99% of 1269 at avg 51¢, ROI +50%94% of 26124 at avg 59¢, ROI +35%75% of 72 at avg 70¢, ROI +10%
Entries under 30¢4% (won 97% of 237)5% (won 95% of 59)10% (won 57% of 2594)11% (won 38% of 8)
Entries 30–50¢26% (won 100% of 1446)40% (won 99% of 512)22% (won 94% of 5704)11% (won 13% of 8)
Entries 50–70¢40% (won 100% of 2198)50% (won 100% of 633)35% (won 99% of 9204)13% (won 56% of 9)
Entries 70¢ and up30% (won 100% of 1675)5% (won 100% of 65)33% (won 100% of 8622)65% (won 96% of 47)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

3 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketferrariChampions2026primmRN1waierma
Hersonissos 3: Nikita Mashtakov vs Adrian Andreev
opposite sides · consensus Adrian Andreev
Adrian Andreev $21K—Nikita Mashtakov $24K—
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
Under $1.2K—Over $1.7K—
BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Tomas Machac vs Borna Gojo
same side · consensus Tomas Machac
Tomas Machac $24K—Tomas Machac $17K—
BNP Paribas Nordic Open: James Duckworth vs Cameron Norrie
same side · consensus Cameron Norrie
Cameron Norrie $15K—Cameron Norrie $19K—
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: 1st Half O/U 0.5
same side · consensus Under
Over $1.3K—Over $360—