BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Tomas Machac vs Borna Gojo

19 of 25 top Polymarket traders hold Tomas Machac (76%) · Tomas Machac at 66¢ · $125K held · ends Nov 16

Tomas Machac66¢Borna Gojo34¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Tomas Machac

Consensus Traders

Tomas Machac 76%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$124.9K

Combined PnL

$-1.4K

Smart Money Entry

63¢ → 65.5¢

+4% since entry · 19 traders

Research grade

NeutralTomas Machac at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tomas Machac

19 of 25 top traders (76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Tomas Machac66%

Borna Gojo35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Borna Gojo6 traders

Total Value$42.2K

Total Shares123,336

Combined PnL$-4.7K

Tomas Machac19 traders

Total Value$81.8K

Total Shares119,217

Combined PnL+$3.3K

Borna Gojo — 24%Tomas Machac — 76%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO robustmstCTR	Borna Gojoavg 38.6¢	$43.8K	$39.2K	$-4.6K	47% 126-142 (268)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Tomas Machacavg 63.3¢	$22.7K	$23.7K	+$968.17	46% 33777-39454 (73231)
alpheclabs2	Tomas Machacavg 60.8¢	$17.8K	$19.1K	+$1.4K	47% 1777-1989 (3766)
RN1	Tomas Machacavg 63.8¢	$16.0K	$16.4K	+$475.37	53% 72043-63546 (135589)
TH thirdt1me	Tomas Machacavg 63¢	$6.5K	$6.6K	+$252.69	58% 231-170 (401)
SL SlickRick123	Tomas Machacavg 61¢	$4.9K	$5.2K	+$360	47% 6392-7105 (13497)
CH ch27er	Tomas Machacavg 67.1¢	$2.8K	$2.7K	-$109.25	54% 52-44 (96)
KK KkunnCTR	Borna Gojoavg 31.2¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	-$21.12	42% 262-364 (626)
FL Flaznorp	Tomas Machacavg 65.1¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$7.66	52% 49502-46467 (95969)
38 38791873984189	Tomas Machacavg 64.2¢	$2.1K	$1.7K	+$23.51	48% 72180-77921 (150101)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Tomas Machacavg 66.5¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$24	51% 2350-2286 (4636)
LI LightParadox	Tomas Machacavg 69.1¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$55.12	45% 2685-3222 (5907)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Tomas Machacavg 63.3¢	$1.2K	$810.31	+$53.91	53% 860-756 (1616)
└ Tomas Machac leg	Tomas Machacavg 63.3¢	$496.64	$514.03	+$24.93
└ Borna Gojo leg	Borna Gojoavg 32.9¢	$282.6	$296.29	+$28.97
EU Eulhunter	Tomas Machacavg 63.5¢	$751.92	$775.52	+$23.6	53% 6834-5983 (12817)
MA MadridTime	Tomas Machacavg 66.1¢	$311.55	$308.38	-$3.17	45% 2690-3266 (5956)
KC Kch-TempCTR	Borna Gojoavg 29¢	$256.9	$270.12	+$13.21	52% 252-237 (489)
TH thestingsnake	Tomas Machacavg 63¢	$192	$199.62	+$7.62	60% 4654-3141 (7795)
machinelearned	Tomas Machacavg 62.4¢	$132.2	$137.9	+$5.7	54% 10552-8958 (19510)
tradecraft	Tomas Machacavg 70¢	$133.9	$126.39	-$7.51	51% 6925-6572 (13497)
EF efntrick	Tomas Machacavg 68.7¢	$123.6	$125.1	+$1.5	49% 3736-3960 (7696)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Tomas Machacavg 62.5¢	$64.8	$69.3	+$4.5	52% 6198-5722 (11920)
LR lryyy<$100	Tomas Machacavg 61¢	$53.68	$57.64	+$3.96	48% 40309-43267 (83576)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Borna Gojoavg 34.1¢	$57.98	$53.55	-$4.43	45% 2757-3338 (6095)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Tomas Machacavg 69¢	$51.78	$52.16	+$0.38	65% 2216-1213 (3429)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Borna Gojoavg 31¢	$44.87	$47.44	+$2.57	46% 2784-3230 (6014)

robustmstCTR

Borna Gojo

Invested

$43,824.35

Value

$39.2K

PnL

$-4.6K

Record

47%

126-142 (268)

ferrariChampions2026

Tomas Machac

Invested

$22,714.54

Value

$23.7K

PnL

+$968.17

Record

46%

33777-39454 (73231)

alpheclabs2

Tomas Machac

Invested

$17,775.44

Value

$19.1K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

47%

1777-1989 (3766)

RN1

Tomas Machac

Invested

$15,966.25

Value

$16.4K

PnL

+$475.37

Record

53%

72043-63546 (135589)

thirdt1me

Tomas Machac

Invested

$6,460.24

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$252.69

Record

58%

231-170 (401)

SlickRick123

Tomas Machac

Invested

$4,880

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$360

Record

47%

6392-7105 (13497)

ch27er

Tomas Machac

Invested

$2,796.75

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$109.25

Record

54%

52-44 (96)

KkunnCTR

Borna Gojo

Invested

$2,687.12

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$21.12

Record

42%

262-364 (626)

Flaznorp

Tomas Machac

Invested

$1,783.5

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$7.66

Record

52%

49502-46467 (95969)

38791873984189

Tomas Machac

Invested

$2,071.88

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$23.51

Record

48%

72180-77921 (150101)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Tomas Machac

Invested

$1,596

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$24

Record

51%

2350-2286 (4636)

LightParadox

Tomas Machac

Invested

$1,128.65

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$55.12

Record

45%

2685-3222 (5907)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Tomas Machac

Invested

$1,156.65

Value

$810.31

PnL

+$53.91

Record

53%

860-756 (1616)

Both legs:

Tomas Machac$496.6463.3¢+$24.93

Borna Gojo$282.632.9¢+$28.97

Eulhunter

Tomas Machac

Invested

$751.92

Value

$775.52

PnL

+$23.6

Record

53%

6834-5983 (12817)

MadridTime

Tomas Machac

Invested

$311.55

Value

$308.38

PnL

-$3.17

Record

45%

2690-3266 (5956)

Kch-TempCTR

Borna Gojo

Invested

$256.9

Value

$270.12

PnL

+$13.21

Record

52%

252-237 (489)

thestingsnake

Tomas Machac

Invested

$192

Value

$199.62

PnL

+$7.62

Record

60%

4654-3141 (7795)

machinelearned

Tomas Machac

Invested

$132.2

Value

$137.9

PnL

+$5.7

Record

54%

10552-8958 (19510)

tradecraft

Tomas Machac

Invested

$133.9

Value

$126.39

PnL

-$7.51

Record

51%

6925-6572 (13497)

efntrick

Tomas Machac

Invested

$123.6

Value

$125.1

PnL

+$1.5

Record

49%

3736-3960 (7696)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Tomas Machac

Invested

$64.8

Value

$69.3

PnL

+$4.5

Record

52%

6198-5722 (11920)

lryyy<$100

Tomas Machac

Invested

$53.68

Value

$57.64

PnL

+$3.96

Record

48%

40309-43267 (83576)

VenusianCTR<$100

Borna Gojo

Invested

$57.98

Value

$53.55

PnL

-$4.43

Record

45%

2757-3338 (6095)

darkumbreon88<$100

Tomas Machac

Invested

$51.78

Value

$52.16

PnL

+$0.38

Record

65%

2216-1213 (3429)

LimousinCTR<$100

Borna Gojo

Invested

$44.87

Value

$47.44

PnL

+$2.57

Record

46%

2784-3230 (6014)

Research grade

NeutralTomas Machac at 66%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Tomas Machac

19 of 25 top traders (76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tomas Machac wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.