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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
beachboy4BreakTheBankFlaznorpQuantDeLaFugazi
Record (consensus markets)no settled market41% (589–853, n=1442)53% (7602–6859, n=14461)64% (1195–672, n=1867)
Consensus PnL—$7.6M$4.1M$114K
Tracked as—PM monthly #3PM monthly #10Hand-picked
Sides with the consensusno open consensus position89% (31 of 35 open)66% (100 of 152 open)75% (12 of 16 open)
Strongest topicsnot computed yet
  • NFL +51 pts n=142, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=107, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=282, ROI +37%
  • Tennis +13 pts n=52, ROI +24%
  • NHL +9 pts n=58, ROI +14%
  • Esports +9 pts n=13, ROI +14%
Weakest topic——Other Sports −28 pts, n=15—
Settled positions, side won—97% of 593 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%56% of 1398 at avg 54¢, ROI +28%60% of 1651 at avg 52¢, ROI +6%
Entries under 30¢—10% (won 82% of 60)29% (won 11% of 403)24% (won 21% of 399)
Entries 30–50¢—36% (won 98% of 212)16% (won 38% of 228)22% (won 46% of 362)
Entries 50–70¢—35% (won 100% of 205)15% (won 62% of 214)23% (won 72% of 384)
Entries 70¢ and up—20% (won 100% of 116)40% (won 94% of 553)31% (won 93% of 506)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.