Consensus PnL $113K · win rate 66% (742–380, n=1122) · hand-picked wallet · holds 18 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$112.9K
Record
742W / 380L
Win Rate
66.0%
of 1122 settled
Batting Avg
59.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#943
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
20,954
Markets
1,828
Volume
$826.6K
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Top consensus positions
18 in listed consensus markets · 14 of 18 on the consensus side (78%)- Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $50K · now 0¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (91% of 11)
- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $20K · now 18¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (68% of 68)
- Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $20K · now 8¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (89% of 46)
- Trump meets with Putin by December 31?Yes $4.2K · now 84¢ · in at 45¢with the consensus (58% of 19)
- Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?Yes $4.1K · now 83¢ · in at 32¢with the consensus (60% of 31)
- Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?Yes $3.5K · now 71¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (60% of 6)
- Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?Yes $3.3K · now 83¢ · in at 54¢with the consensus (55% of 20)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $2.4K · now 95¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (85% of 196)
Specialties
1,509 settled consensus markets · held side won 59% at an average entry of 51¢- Mentions
+8 pts
side won 61% of 1052 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +14%
- Politics
+8 pts
side won 63% of 248 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +9%
- Geopolitics
+7 pts
side won 50% of 115 · avg entry 42¢
ROI −2%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 25%(won 21% of 374)
- 30–50¢: 23%(won 46% of 344)
- 50–70¢: 23%(won 72% of 347)
- 70¢ and up: 29%(won 92% of 444)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.