Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
HomelessnHoelessprimmRN1
Record (consensus markets)52% (133–124, n=257)50% (1116–1127, n=2243)47% (14240–15745, n=29985)
Consensus PnL-$62K$3.6M$14.8M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #597PM monthly #51PM monthly #30 + pinned
Sides with the consensus100% (1 of 1 open)63% (17 of 27 open)60% (102 of 169 open)
Strongest topicsnone with 10+ settled
Weakest topicEsports −1 pts, n=231——
Settled positions, side won52% of 249 at avg 54¢, ROI 0%99% of 1020 at avg 50¢, ROI +51%94% of 25960 at avg 59¢, ROI +35%
Entries under 30¢5% (won 17% of 12)5% (won 94% of 51)10% (won 57% of 2588)
Entries 30–50¢33% (won 41% of 83)41% (won 99% of 418)22% (won 94% of 5673)
Entries 50–70¢47% (won 57% of 118)49% (won 99% of 504)35% (won 99% of 9163)
Entries 70¢ and up14% (won 75% of 36)5% (won 100% of 47)33% (won 100% of 8536)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

5 on the same side, 13 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketHomelessnHoelessprimmRN1
Virginia Tech vs. SMU
opposite sides · consensus SMU
—SMU $32KVirginia Tech $4.5K
New Mexico vs. Nevada
opposite sides · consensus New Mexico
—Nevada $7.4KNew Mexico $2.1K
Spread: Nebraska (-7.5)
opposite sides · consensus Illinois
—Nebraska $2.0KIllinois $1.2K
Spread: Nebraska (-4.5)
opposite sides · consensus Illinois
—Nebraska $2.1KIllinois $807
Virginia Tech vs. SMU: O/U 57.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
—Over $1.8KUnder $803
South Florida vs. East Carolina: O/U 43.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
—Under $1.3KOver $1.2K
Spread: New Mexico (-9.5)
opposite sides · consensus New Mexico
—Nevada $1.3KNew Mexico $1.2K
South Florida vs. East Carolina: O/U 37.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
—Under $508Over $1.4K
New Mexico vs. Nevada: O/U 43.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
—Over $1.7KUnder $6
Spread: South Florida (-10.5)
opposite sides · consensus East Carolina
—South Florida $324East Carolina $903
Spread: SMU (-13.5)
opposite sides · consensus Virginia Tech
—Virginia Tech $381SMU $416
Spread: Nebraska (-6.5)
opposite sides · consensus Illinois
—Illinois $91Nebraska $308
Spread: SMU (-3.5)
opposite sides · consensus SMU
—Virginia Tech $189SMU $112
Spread: SMU (-10.5)
same side · consensus Virginia Tech
—Virginia Tech $3.5KVirginia Tech $1.8K
Spread: SMU (-6.5)
same side · consensus SMU
—SMU $2.8KSMU $1.2K
Virginia Tech vs. SMU: O/U 55.5
same side · consensus Over
—Over $31Over $1.5K
Spread: SMU (-7.5)
same side · consensus Virginia Tech
—Virginia Tech $5Virginia Tech $1.1K
Spread: SMU (-4.5)
same side · consensus SMU
—SMU $3SMU $119