New Mexico vs. Nevada

17 of 31 top Polymarket traders hold New Mexico (55%) · New Mexico at 95¢ · $287K held · ended Nov 7

New Mexico95¢Nevada5¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

New Mexico

Consensus Traders

New Mexico 55%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$286.6K

Combined PnL

$1.6K

Smart Money Entry

91.7¢ → 94.5¢

+3% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

NeutralNew Mexico at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

New Mexico

17 of 31 top traders (55%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

New Mexico95%

Nevada6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

New Mexico17 traders

Total Value$256.6K

Total Shares276,639

Combined PnL+$2.8K

Nevada14 traders

Total Value$22.5K

Total Shares253,706

Combined PnL$-1.2K

New Mexico — 55%Nevada — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

59% of non-arb traders are on New Mexico. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNew Mexico 50% · 8

Aligned

ctrNew Mexico 62% · 13

Aligned

Hand-pickedNew Mexico 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000New Mexico 56% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
99 999585	New Mexicoavg 93.8¢	$191.4K	$191.5K	+$94.69	87% 77-12 (89)
OM omnibus-076daa	New Mexicoavg 96.9¢	$19.8K	$19.1K	-$741.04	50% 21456-21716 (43172)
nigiri99	New Mexicoavg 79.4¢	$14.7K	$14.5K	-$256.2	46% 8703-10373 (19076)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Nevadaavg 6.4¢	$12.7K	$12.3K	-$447.54	53% 6300-5583 (11883)
0xheavy888	New Mexicoavg 78¢	$8.6K	$10.0K	+$1.9K	56% 8134-6444 (14578)
PR primmCTR	Nevadaavg 22.1¢	$8.4K	$7.4K	-$975.95	47% 1284-1467 (2751)
VeryLucky888	New Mexicoavg 78¢	$7.1K	$7.2K	+$1.4K	58% 47221-34058 (81279)
HA Hashbrown	New Mexicoavg 95.1¢	$4.8K	$4.7K	+$20.14	90% 676-75 (751)
FE ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100	New Mexicoavg 78.5¢	$3.5K	$4.5K	+$455.44	42% 8093-11300 (19393)
└ New Mexico leg	New Mexicoavg 78.5¢	$2.8K	$3.4K	+$18.13
└ Nevada leg	Nevadaavg 3.8¢	$634.28	$1.1K	+$437.32
RN1	New Mexicoavg 86.5¢	$2.2K	$2.5K	+$280.11	53% 61934-54221 (116155)
65 6512395314597884	New Mexicoavg 90¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$65.78	51% 4833-4699 (9532)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Nevadaavg 21¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$49.83	47% 369-419 (788)
HO HomeRunHazard	New Mexicoavg 78¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$0	54% 18313-15414 (33727)
TA takeormakeARB<$100	New Mexicoavg 87.5¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$80.54	52% 4962-4513 (9475)
└ New Mexico leg	New Mexicoavg 87.5¢	$962.59	$1.0K	+$62.39
└ Nevada leg	Nevadaavg 9.5¢	$504.38	$361.46	-$142.92
PL pltrkr111	New Mexicoavg 78¢	$1,000	$1,000	+$0	55% 781-652 (1433)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	New Mexicoavg 91.8¢	$852.83	$861.21	+$8.38	56% 8430-6558 (14988)
GC GC-PARB<$100	New Mexicoavg 78¢	$742.5	$750	+$7.5	64% 10131-5728 (15859)
└ New Mexico leg	New Mexicoavg 78¢	$585	$585	+$0
└ Nevada leg	Nevadaavg 21¢	$157.5	$165	+$7.5
NM NM-PARB<$100	New Mexicoavg 78¢	$742.48	$749.98	+$7.5	64% 10113-5660 (15773)
└ New Mexico leg	New Mexicoavg 78¢	$584.98	$584.98	-$0
└ Nevada leg	Nevadaavg 21¢	$157.5	$165	+$7.5
SE sentrio	New Mexicoavg 78¢	$433.27	$433.27	+$0	50% 26223-25873 (52096)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	New Mexicoavg 91¢	$350.06	$368.87	+$18.81	52% 14617-13288 (27905)
PT PT-S7	New Mexicoavg 80.9¢	$196.22	$224.49	+$28.27	49% 3259-3439 (6698)
0X 0xfFFF6537CTR	Nevadaavg 3.2¢	$94.27	$191.48	+$97.22	49% 1132-1172 (2304)
GM gmpm2CTR	Nevadaavg 22¢	$187.88	$183.61	-$4.27	53% 370-325 (695)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Nevadaavg 22¢	$152.94	$145.99	-$6.95	50% 38089-37336 (75425)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Nevadaavg 21¢	$126.02	$128.91	+$2.89	51% 2006-1938 (3944)

999585

New Mexico

Invested

$191,359.31

Value

$191.5K

PnL

+$94.69

Record

87%

77-12 (89)

omnibus-076daa

New Mexico

Invested

$19,795

Value

$19.1K

PnL

-$741.04

Record

50%

21456-21716 (43172)

nigiri99

New Mexico

Invested

$14,721.3

Value

$14.5K

PnL

-$256.2

Record

46%

8703-10373 (19076)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Nevada

Invested

$12,709.4

Value

$12.3K

PnL

-$447.54

Record

53%

6300-5583 (11883)

0xheavy888

New Mexico

Invested

$8,551.9

Value

$10.0K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

56%

8134-6444 (14578)

primmCTR

Nevada

Invested

$8,414.83

Value

$7.4K

PnL

-$975.95

Record

47%

1284-1467 (2751)

VeryLucky888

New Mexico

Invested

$7,110

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

58%

47221-34058 (81279)

Hashbrown

New Mexico

Invested

$4,784.8

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$20.14

Record

90%

676-75 (751)

ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100

New Mexico

Invested

$3,480.57

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$455.44

Record

42%

8093-11300 (19393)

Both legs:

New Mexico$2,846.2978.5¢+$18.13

Nevada$634.283.8¢+$437.32

RN1

New Mexico

Invested

$2,194.72

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$280.11

Record

53%

61934-54221 (116155)

6512395314597884

New Mexico

Invested

$2,078.56

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$65.78

Record

51%

4833-4699 (9532)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Nevada

Invested

$2,092.68

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$49.83

Record

47%

369-419 (788)

HomeRunHazard

New Mexico

Invested

$2,076.44

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

18313-15414 (33727)

takeormakeARB<$100

New Mexico

Invested

$1,466.97

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$80.54

Record

52%

4962-4513 (9475)

Both legs:

New Mexico$962.5987.5¢+$62.39

Nevada$504.389.5¢-$142.92

pltrkr111

New Mexico

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1,000

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

781-652 (1433)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

New Mexico

Invested

$852.83

Value

$861.21

PnL

+$8.38

Record

56%

8430-6558 (14988)

GC-PARB<$100

New Mexico

Invested

$742.5

Value

$750

PnL

+$7.5

Record

64%

10131-5728 (15859)

Both legs:

Invested

$742.48

Value

$749.98

PnL

+$7.5

Record

64%

10113-5660 (15773)

Both legs:

New Mexico$584.9878¢-$0

Nevada$157.521¢+$7.5

sentrio

New Mexico

Invested

$433.27

Value

$433.27

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

26223-25873 (52096)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

New Mexico

Invested

$350.06

Value

$368.87

PnL

+$18.81

Record

52%

14617-13288 (27905)

PT-S7

New Mexico

Invested

$196.22

Value

$224.49

PnL

+$28.27

Record

49%

3259-3439 (6698)

0xfFFF6537CTR

Nevada

Invested

$94.27

Value

$191.48

PnL

+$97.22

Record

49%

1132-1172 (2304)

gmpm2CTR

Nevada

Invested

$187.88

Value

$183.61

PnL

-$4.27

Record

53%

370-325 (695)

SnakeBallCTR

Nevada

Invested

$152.94

Value

$145.99

PnL

-$6.95

Record

50%

38089-37336 (75425)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Nevada

Invested

$126.02

Value

$128.91

PnL

+$2.89

Record

51%

2006-1938 (3944)

Research grade

NeutralNew Mexico at 95%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

New Mexico

17 of 31 top traders (55%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

59% of non-arb traders are on New Mexico. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNew Mexico 50% · 8

Aligned

ctrNew Mexico 62% · 13

Aligned

Hand-pickedNew Mexico 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000New Mexico 56% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that New Mexico wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.