PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
NatoAlfistahi774c0xe98c6194374418b1d1b27321f025bd64ac2c8792
Record (consensus markets)48% (3299–3527, n=6826)57% (3351–2542, n=5893)92% (213–18, n=231)
Consensus PnL$32K$195K$434K
Tracked aswas PM monthly #994PM monthly #120PM monthly #921
Sides with the consensus47% (32 of 68 open)67% (4 of 6 open)no open consensus position
Strongest topics
Weakest topic———
Settled positions, side won94% of 1999 at avg 46¢, ROI +42%100% of 3066 at avg 48¢, ROI +48%98% of 335 at avg 52¢, ROI +47%
Entries under 30¢11% (won 80% of 221)7% (won 100% of 226)3% (won 90% of 10)
Entries 30–50¢48% (won 94% of 966)55% (won 100% of 1675)36% (won 98% of 120)
Entries 50–70¢40% (won 97% of 802)32% (won 100% of 967)59% (won 98% of 197)
Entries 70¢ and up1% (won 80% of 10)6% (won 99% of 198)2% (won 100% of 8)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

1 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketNatoAlfistahi774c0xe98c6194374418b1d1b27321f025bd64ac2c8792
Pacers vs. Nets
opposite sides · consensus Pacers
Nets $33Pacers $6.3K—
Pistons vs. 76ers
opposite sides · consensus Pistons
Pistons $8076ers $3.7K—
Magic vs. Knicks
opposite sides · consensus Knicks
Magic $232Knicks $2.4K—
Pacers vs. Nets: O/U 231.5
same side · consensus Under
Under $173Under $2.9K—