Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Pistons, while the market favors 76ers (56%). 1 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Pistons vs. 76ers
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Pistons (33%) · Pistons at 44¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 25
🔄
Contrarian
Pistons
3
Pistons 33%
1 arb excluded
$5.6K
-$534.64
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DO DolphinBallerCTR | Pistonsavg 46.9¢ | $4.7K | $4.2K | -$484.64 | 45% 60-74 (134) |
 BigRabbit | 76ersavg 54¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$50 | 40% 688-1013 (1701) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Pistonsavg 46.3¢ | $73.67 | $71.28 | -$2.39 | 54% 13611-11436 (25047) |
| └ Pistons leg | Pistonsavg 46.3¢ | $42.6 | $40.48 | -$2.12 | |
| └ 76ers leg | 76ersavg 56.5¢ | $31.07 | $30.8 | -$0.27 | |
 0xheavy888<$100 | 76ersavg 56¢ | $2.96 | $2.96 | +$0 | 55% 6288-5054 (11342) |
Invested
$4,655.98
Value
$4.2K
PnL
-$484.64
Record
45%
60-74 (134)
BigRabbitInvested
$1,350
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$50
Record
40%
688-1013 (1701)
Invested
$73.67
Value
$71.28
PnL
-$2.39
Record
54%
13611-11436 (25047)
Both legs:
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$2.96
Value
$2.96
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
6288-5054 (11342)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.