Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Nets, while the market favors Pacers (71%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Pacers vs. Nets
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Nets (75%) · Nets at 29¢ · $587 held · ends Oct 25
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Contrarian
Nets
4
Nets 75%
$587.36
$1.38
28.9¢ → 29¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Pacers 71%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Netsavg 29¢ | $1.8K | $522 | -$0 | 58% 31291-22609 (53900) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Netsavg 28.7¢ | $29.07 | $29.3 | +$0.23 | 54% 13611-11436 (25047) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Netsavg 28¢ | $28 | $29 | +$1 | 61% 4327-2785 (7112) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Pacersavg 71¢ | $7.06 | $7.06 | +$0.15 | 55% 6288-5054 (11342) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$1,800
Value
$522
PnL
-$0
Record
58%
31291-22609 (53900)
Invested
$29.07
Value
$29.3
PnL
+$0.23
Record
54%
13611-11436 (25047)
Invested
$28
Value
$29
PnL
+$1
Record
61%
4327-2785 (7112)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$7.06
Value
$7.06
PnL
+$0.15
Record
55%
6288-5054 (11342)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
29.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.