Pacers vs. Nets: O/U 231.5

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 52¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 25

Over49¢Under51¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.7K

Combined PnL

$331.16

Smart Money Entry

48.9¢ → 51.5¢

+5% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares12,664

Combined PnL+$330.74

Over2 traders

Total Value$38.7

Total Shares80

Combined PnL+$0.42

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 49¢	$5.6K	$5.9K	+$281.8	55% 12111-9992 (22103)
BA Bayupati	Underavg 48¢	$586.58	$635.46	+$48.88	50% 160-158 (318)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Underavg 50.1¢	$118.08	$115.2	-$2.88	54% 13809-11592 (25401)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.1¢	$87.12	$82.65	-$4.47
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.9¢	$30.96	$32.55	+$1.59
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$35.93	$36.3	+$0.37	69% 4259-1919 (6178)
RL RLWG<$100	Underavg 51¢	$2.55	$2.6	+$0.05	51% 3973-3830 (7803)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.4	+$0.05	55% 9063-7461 (16524)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$5,608.43

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$281.8

Record

55%

12111-9992 (22103)

Bayupati

Under

Invested

$586.58

Value

$635.46

PnL

+$48.88

Record

50%

160-158 (318)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Under

Invested

$118.08

Value

$115.2

PnL

-$2.88

Record

54%

13809-11592 (25401)

Both legs:

Under$87.1250.1¢-$4.47

Over$30.9649.9¢+$1.59

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$35.93

Value

$36.3

PnL

+$0.37

Record

69%

4259-1919 (6178)

RLWG<$100

Under

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.6

PnL

+$0.05

Record

51%

3973-3830 (7803)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.4

PnL

+$0.05

Record

55%

9063-7461 (16524)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.