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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
ByteBadger92e46m3Hauchnkeeptheblueflagflyinghigh
Record (consensus markets)no settled market17% (156–789, n=945)no settled market42% (44–60, n=104)
Consensus PnL—$536K$117K$118K
Tracked asPM monthly #897PM monthly #2PM monthly #143PM monthly #39
Sides with the consensus100% (1 of 1 open)73% (321 of 440 open)50% (7 of 14 open)61% (17 of 28 open)
Strongest topicsnot computed yet
  • Crypto +45 pts n=124, ROI +67%
  • Soccer +16 pts n=1174, ROI +26%
  • NBA +14 pts n=146, ROI +19%
none with 10+ settled
  • NBA +52 pts n=428, ROI +51%
  • NHL +44 pts n=75, ROI +43%
  • Tennis +43 pts n=87, ROI +48%
Weakest topic—NFL −6 pts, n=17Finance −1 pts, n=121—
Settled positions, side won—62% of 5804 at avg 54¢, ROI +30%10% of 122 at avg 11¢, ROI −2%100% of 691 at avg 51¢, ROI +48%
Entries under 30¢—38% (won 18% of 2197)89% (won 2% of 108)2% (won 100% of 16)
Entries 30–50¢—7% (won 53% of 397)6% (won 43% of 7)49% (won 100% of 338)
Entries 50–70¢—9% (won 71% of 531)1% (won 100% of 1)40% (won 100% of 278)
Entries 70¢ and up—46% (won 97% of 2679)5% (won 100% of 6)9% (won 100% of 59)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

4 on the same side, 5 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketByteBadger92e46m3Hauchnkeeptheblueflagflyinghigh
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—No $9Yes $182K—
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—No $1.4KYes $3.6K—
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $2.1KYes $112—
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—Yes $223No $289—
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $100No $227—
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
same side · consensus No
—No $2.2KNo $24K—
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $752Yes $3.0K—
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
same side · consensus No
—Yes $315Yes $11—
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
same side · consensus No
—Yes $27Yes $81—