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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| BreakTheBank | ndb1 | otsosiusa | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 46% (560–667, n=1227) | 65% (889–469, n=1358) | 44% (4–5, n=9) | 47% (13371–14881, n=28252) |
| Consensus PnL | $9.4M | $4.2M | $227K | $14.8M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #96 | PM monthly #182 | PM monthly #30 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 59% (17 of 29 open) | 74% (34 of 46 open) | no open consensus position | 61% (133 of 219 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| none with 10+ settled |
| |
| Weakest topic | — | NFL −9 pts, n=139 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 97% of 580 at avg 53¢, ROI +40% | 64% of 1288 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% | 100% of 4 at avg 55¢, ROI +47% | 94% of 25370 at avg 59¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 11% (won 80% of 61) | 13% (won 15% of 168) | 0% | 10% (won 57% of 2538) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 35% (won 98% of 203) | 20% (won 39% of 256) | 25% (won 100% of 1) | 22% (won 94% of 5565) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 35% (won 100% of 201) | 24% (won 58% of 314) | 75% (won 100% of 3) | 36% (won 99% of 9017) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 20% (won 100% of 115) | 43% (won 93% of 550) | 0% | 33% (won 100% of 8250) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | BreakTheBank | ndb1 | otsosiusa | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Pelicans (-4.5) opposite sides · consensus Jazz | Jazz $29K | — | — | Pelicans $136 |
| Spread: Pelicans (-5.5) opposite sides · consensus Jazz | Jazz $17K | — | — | Pelicans $130 |
| Spread: Pelicans (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Pelicans | Jazz $283 | — | — | Pelicans $154 |
| Spread: Grizzlies (-6.5) same side · consensus Pacers | Grizzlies $343 | — | — | Grizzlies $118 |