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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBanke46m3lastminwinpbshine
Record (consensus markets)96% (291–13, n=304)17% (155–752, n=907)86% (12–2, n=14)no settled market
Consensus PnL$8.4M$536K$285K—
Tracked asPM monthly #1PM monthly #2PM monthly #102was PM monthly #999
Sides with the consensus79% (31 of 39 open)73% (313 of 426 open)74% (43 of 58 open)31% (8 of 26 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=83, ROI +49%
  • NBA +47 pts n=58, ROI +46%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=160, ROI +37%
not computed yetnot computed yet
Weakest topic—Tech ±0 pts, n=36——
Settled positions, side won95% of 332 at avg 52¢, ROI +39%93% of 626 at avg 90¢, ROI +2%——
Entries under 30¢11% (won 69% of 36)7% (won 11% of 46)——
Entries 30–50¢35% (won 97% of 116)1% (won 86% of 7)——
Entries 50–70¢37% (won 99% of 124)1% (won 75% of 8)——
Entries 70¢ and up17% (won 100% of 56)90% (won 100% of 565)——

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

11 on the same side, 12 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBanke46m3lastminwinpbshine
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
same side · consensus No
—Yes $7Yes $284Yes $127
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $425KYes $11——
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $9No $201K—
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $71K—No $15K—
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $4No $75K—
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $10No $72K—
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $6No $55K—
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $41K——Yes $2.2K
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $21No $31K—
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $28KYes $108——
Will Teddy Riner win the 2027 French presidential election?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $32No $4.8K—
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $2.4KYes $318——
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—Yes $5—No $1.6K
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $306KYes $108——
Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus No
Yes $27KYes $10——
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $19KYes $369——
Will Brighton win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus No
Yes $13KYes $12——
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $4.6KYes $512——
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
same side · consensus No
—Yes $5Yes $1.9K—
Will Ipswich Town win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $200Yes $4——
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $4Yes $135—
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina Senate election?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $49Yes $40——
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $8Yes $75—