Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Ipswich Town win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $202 held · ends May 30, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 100%
$202.47
$-12.3K
3.1¢ → 0.1¢
-98% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+20 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
668h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $12.3K | $200 | $-12.1K | 43% 561-738 (1299) |
0X 0xf475402430f3dc9611abeea737fe69dd02f48486CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.1¢ | $84.59 | $1.03 | -$83.55 | 11% 20-166 (186) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.72 | $0.72 | -$47.51 | 57% 3069-2357 (5426) |
HO HourglassCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.2¢ | $36.1 | $0.43 | -$35.66 | 77% 8889-2659 (11548) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.2¢ | $17.62 | $0.21 | -$17.41 | 56% 14257-11059 (25316) |
DR DreamwireCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.3¢ | $5.71 | $0.07 | -$5.64 | 83% 2683-538 (3221) |
Invested
$12,347.41
Value
$200
PnL
$-12.1K
Record
43%
561-738 (1299)
Invested
$84.59
Value
$1.03
PnL
-$83.55
Record
11%
20-166 (186)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$0.72
Value
$0.72
PnL
-$47.51
Record
57%
3069-2357 (5426)
Invested
$36.1
Value
$0.43
PnL
-$35.66
Record
77%
8889-2659 (11548)
Invested
$17.62
Value
$0.21
PnL
-$17.41
Record
56%
14257-11059 (25316)
Invested
$5.71
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$5.64
Record
83%
2683-538 (3221)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.