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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankFlaznorpjoseph00677TheWindKnowsmyName
Record (consensus markets)45% (573–710, n=1283)52% (6520–6024, n=12544)45% (10–12, n=22)69% (183–84, n=267)
Consensus PnL$7.9M$3.5M$5.3M-$102K
Tracked asPM monthly #3PM monthly #23PM monthly #2was PM monthly #953
Sides with the consensus86% (24 of 28 open)70% (277 of 396 open)no open consensus position51% (94 of 184 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=140, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=281, ROI +37%
  • Tennis +13 pts n=53, ROI +24%
  • NHL +8 pts n=61, ROI +12%
  • Esports +9 pts n=13, ROI +14%
Weakest topic—Other Sports −13 pts, n=22——
Settled positions, side won97% of 580 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%56% of 1617 at avg 55¢, ROI +27%59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31%88% of 177 at avg 68¢, ROI +27%
Entries under 30¢11% (won 80% of 61)29% (won 11% of 465)12% (won 0% of 2)12% (won 33% of 21)
Entries 30–50¢35% (won 98% of 203)16% (won 40% of 255)6% (won 0% of 1)14% (won 84% of 25)
Entries 50–70¢35% (won 100% of 201)16% (won 62% of 260)65% (won 73% of 11)12% (won 90% of 21)
Entries 70¢ and up20% (won 100% of 115)39% (won 94% of 637)18% (won 67% of 3)62% (won 99% of 110)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.