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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankCyclewingoogleplayHomeRunHazard
Record (consensus markets)57% (28–21, n=49)no settled market50% (6–6, n=12)53% (307–269, n=576)
Consensus PnL$758K—$423K$308K
Tracked asPM monthly #2PM monthly #972PM monthly #17PM monthly #7
Sides with the consensus52% (12 of 23 open)no open consensus positionno open consensus position67% (94 of 141 open)
Strongest topics
  • NBA +48 pts n=22, ROI +45%
not computed yetnone with 10+ settled
Weakest topic————
Settled positions, side won100% of 31 at avg 52¢, ROI +46%—100% of 6 at avg 51¢, ROI +49%100% of 164 at avg 54¢, ROI +46%
Entries under 30¢0%—0%1% (won 100% of 1)
Entries 30–50¢48% (won 100% of 15)—17% (won 100% of 1)30% (won 100% of 49)
Entries 50–70¢45% (won 100% of 14)—83% (won 100% of 5)62% (won 100% of 101)
Entries 70¢ and up6% (won 100% of 2)—0%8% (won 100% of 13)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

2 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBankCyclewingoogleplayHomeRunHazard
Spread: Giants (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus Giants
Giants $380K——Commanders $2.6K
Commanders vs. Giants: O/U 40.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
Over $5.5K——Under $6.8K
Commanders vs. Giants: O/U 44.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
Over $9——Under $3
Spread: Giants (-3.5)
same side · consensus Commanders
Giants $46K——Giants $612
Spread: 76ers (-5.5)
same side · consensus Raptors
Raptors $230——Raptors $21