Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (84%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Commanders vs. Giants: O/U 44.5
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (56%) · Over at 16¢ · $332 held · ended Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
Over
9
Over 56%
$331.58
-$16.81
38.2¢ → 16¢
-58% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 16%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Under 84%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
-11 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
56% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NM NM-P | Underavg 62¢ | $128.22 | $142.7 | +$14.48 | 59% 3613-2462 (6075) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Overavg 38.1¢ | $151.04 | $128.27 | -$22.77 | 48% 627-689 (1316) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Underavg 62¢ | $32.25 | $11.3 | +$0.06 | 49% 1103-1157 (2260) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Overavg 45.3¢ | $15.84 | $10.84 | -$5 | 72% 31-12 (43) |
 nigiri99<$100 | Underavg 62¢ | $9.92 | $9.92 | +$0 | 52% 399-371 (770) |
AN Anon455CTR<$100 | Overavg 37¢ | $11.65 | $9.76 | -$1.89 | 50% 306-311 (617) |
BR BreakTheBankCTR<$100 | Overavg 37¢ | $11.33 | $9.49 | -$1.84 | 42% 591-824 (1415) |
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100 | Overavg 31¢ | $6.2 | $6.2 | +$0 | 50% 3553-3509 (7062) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Underavg 59¢ | $2.95 | $3.1 | +$0.15 | 57% 3461-2635 (6096) |
Invested
$128.22
Value
$142.7
PnL
+$14.48
Record
59%
3613-2462 (6075)
Invested
$151.04
Value
$128.27
PnL
-$22.77
Record
48%
627-689 (1316)
Invested
$32.25
Value
$11.3
PnL
+$0.06
Record
49%
1103-1157 (2260)
Invested
$15.84
Value
$10.84
PnL
-$5
Record
72%
31-12 (43)
nigiri99<$100Invested
$9.92
Value
$9.92
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
399-371 (770)
Invested
$11.65
Value
$9.76
PnL
-$1.89
Record
50%
306-311 (617)
Invested
$11.33
Value
$9.49
PnL
-$1.84
Record
42%
591-824 (1415)
Invested
$6.2
Value
$6.2
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
3553-3509 (7062)
Invested
$2.95
Value
$3.1
PnL
+$0.15
Record
57%
3461-2635 (6096)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
16.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.