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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| BABELCONSTEL | BreakTheBank | ndb1 | UpTheBlues | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 83% (335–71, n=406) | 45% (573–710, n=1283) | 63% (990–573, n=1563) | 50% (20931–20602, n=41533) |
| Consensus PnL | -$561K | $7.9M | $3.2M | $3.2M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #445 | PM monthly #3 | PM monthly #102 | PM monthly #7 |
| Sides with the consensus | 100% (4 of 4 open) | 69% (20 of 29 open) | 72% (95 of 132 open) | 70% (32 of 46 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| |||
| Weakest topic | Geopolitics −8 pts, n=15 | — | NFL −9 pts, n=139 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 90% of 726 at avg 80¢, ROI +9% | 97% of 580 at avg 53¢, ROI +40% | 64% of 1288 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% | 100% of 38237 at avg 67¢, ROI +37% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 4% (won 3% of 29) | 11% (won 80% of 61) | 13% (won 15% of 168) | 7% (won 99% of 2623) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 6% (won 69% of 42) | 35% (won 98% of 203) | 20% (won 39% of 256) | 21% (won 100% of 7839) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 14% (won 79% of 103) | 35% (won 100% of 201) | 24% (won 58% of 314) | 22% (won 100% of 8452) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 76% (won 98% of 552) | 20% (won 100% of 115) | 43% (won 93% of 550) | 51% (won 100% of 19323) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
3 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | BABELCONSTEL | BreakTheBank | ndb1 | UpTheBlues |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $7.1K | No $90K | — | — |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $122 | — | Yes $1.0M | — |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? same side · consensus No | — | Yes $7 | Yes $993K | — |
| Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? same side · consensus No | — | No $407K | No $335K | — |